Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: prediction, preview, pick to win

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium. TV: NBC, Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.

SERIES HISTORY: 113th regular-season meeting. Chiefs lead series, 58-53. Chiefs have won two straight. The most historic meeting was on Jan. 4, 1998, when Darrien Gordon broke up Elvis Grbac's pass in the end zone to preserve a 14-10 win in the divisional playoffs.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Kansas City can clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie or if Baltimore loses or ties.

Kansas City has built its 10-4 record on takeaways and return touchdowns, so the Broncos' first task is to limit or eliminate both -- which they failed to do in their Week 12 game in Denver, as Tyreek Hill returned a free kick for a touchdown and the Chiefs recovered a muffed potential punt return. Whether that means kicking away from Hill entirely remains to be seen, but the Chiefs will likely try to take advantage of the Broncos' pursuit and force them to overpursue; that led to touchdowns in last year's games and could give Hill some opportunities.

Denver's offense must find consistency and red-zone efficiency; five possessions in the red zone the last two games have resulted in just 13 of a possible 35 points.

The Chiefs must stay more balanced on offense and get the same type of defensive performance they had the first game, when they harassed Trevor Siemian with five sacks and recorded a safety.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Broncos coverage. It took until the final moments of regulation and overtime in Week 12 before Kelce had a massive impact; but, once Alex Smith began finding him downfield and underneath, the Broncos were playing on their heels. Kelce caught eight passes for 101 yards against the Broncos -- with 86 yards and seven receptions coming after halftime. Fill-in linebacker Corey Nelson could find himself in one-on-one coverage against Kelce; Nelson is sturdy in coverage and has the potential to hold his own in that duel.

--Broncos OTs Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson vs. Chiefs edge rushers Dee Ford and Justin Houston. Ford did not play against the Broncos last month, but Houston ran roughshod through Ty Sambrailo, beating him for two sacks before the second-year offensive lineman was mercifully pulled for Stephenson, who has started ever since. But Stephenson hasn't been much better than Sambrailo; he allowed two sacks to the Patriots last week. Houston had another sack in Week 12 at Okung's expense.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: TE A.J. Derby (concussion), TE Virgil Green (concussion), LB Brandon Marshall (hamstring), S T.J. Ward (concussion)

--Questionable: DE Derek Wolfe (neck)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: CB Phillip Gaines (knee)

--Questionable: LB Justin Houston (knee)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Chiefs QB Alex Smith. He was poised for the best year of his career but has taken a sharp turn downward in the schedule's second half. Smith sat out the game against Jacksonville on Nov. 6 due to two blows to his head suffered the week before against Indianapolis. In the six games since then, Smith has thrown only four touchdown passes and four interceptions. He has not cracked 270 yards and bottomed out Sunday against Tennessee with 163 yards. The big problem: Smith and the offense have not been able to protect or build on halftime leads. For the Chiefs to reach their goals, Smith must elevate his game.

FAST FACTS: Broncos QB Trevor Siemian passed for 368 yards and three TDs in the last meeting. He has 984 passing yards in the past three games. ... Denver WR Demaryius Thomas is the only player with 1,000 receiving yards (1,016) in each of the past five seasons. He has four straight games at Kansas City with 100 yards or a TD. ... Denver LB Von Miller has eight sacks in his past five contests vs. the Chiefs. He tallied three sacks and a pass defensed in the last meeting and is looking for a sixth consecutive meeting with a sack. ... Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill tallied a rushing TD, a receiving TD and an 86-yard kick return for a TD in the last meeting. That made him the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to score via rush, reception and kick return in a game. Hill is second among rookies with 10 touchdowns (6 receiving, two rushing, one punt return, one kick return). ... Chiefs LB Justin Houston recorded three sacks, four tackles for loss, a forced fumble and a pass defended in the last meeting. He has eight sacks in the past four games vs. Denver. ... Chiefs CB Marcus Peters has two interceptions and six passes defended in the past three vs. Denver.

PREDICTION: The Chiefs won in overtime in Denver and shouldn't have quite as tough a time against the backsliding Broncos this time.

OUR PICK: Chiefs, 24-13.

--Chris Cluff