Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV: CBS, Tom McCarthy, Adam Archuleta.

SERIES HISTORY: 20th regular-season meeting. Browns lead the series, 11-8. The Bills have won three of the last four, including the last meeting 26-10 in 2014.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

The Bills are acutely aware of their role in history Sunday against the Browns. Cleveland is 0-13, three losses away from becoming just the second NFL team to finish a season 0-16. While Buffalo is all but eliminated from the playoff race, the players are feeling a bit of pressure not to lose to Cleveland.

Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus guaranteed that the Bills aren't going to lose the game, a pretty bold statement considering the Bills' propensity to blow countless games that they probably should have won during their 17-year playoff drought.

LeSean McCoy is coming off the worst full game he has played this season -- just 27 yards on 12 carries against the Steelers. The Bills need to get him going early; if they do, they can hammer away at a defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards, total yards and points. Last week, McCoy never got on track; but, if he starts well, the Bills can control the game solely with their No. 1 rushing attack.

Robert Griffin III will make his second straight start at quarterback for the Browns. His timing was off in the 23-10 loss to the Bengals last week, but another week of practice should improve that. That could mean more short passes typical of a West Coast offense. A player such as Corey Coleman could excel in a catch-and-run attack.

The Browns have given up 30 touchdown passes. Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has to be eager to throw against the Browns' secondary, which gave up two touchdown passes by Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton to tight end Tyler Eifert last week.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Bills WR Sammy Watkins vs. Browns CB Joe Haden. Haden always gets matched with the opponent's best receiver, which is why he gets beat occasionally. Watkins has only 16 catches in a season hampered by injuries, but he no doubt is the player capable of getting behind the defense for a quick strike.

--Bills DT Marcell Dareus vs. Browns C Cameron Erving. Dareus has played well in the five games he has dressed, and he will present a major problem for the interior of the Browns' line. Last week, Isaiah Crowell had a nice game against the Bengals, and the Browns will try to establish him once again, but it won't be easy up the middle. Also, Dareus should be able to push the pocket in the pass rush and force Griffin to move around.

SUNDAY TEAM REPORT:

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Questionable: LB Dominique Alexander (abdomen, groin)

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (concussion)

--Doubtful: T Cordy Glenn (back)

--Questionable: LB Zach Brown (ankle), TE Charles Clay (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (foot), DT Kyle Williams (back)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

RB Mike Gillislee. Rex Ryan likes to call him "Touchdown Mike" and there's a good reason for that. In his two seasons with the Bills, Buffalo's backup to LeSean McCoy has 10 touchdowns, seven this season. And four of the touchdowns have come on runs of 29 yards or more. Gillislee has rushed for 409 yards and has a whopping 6.2 average, which would be a team record. He also has become a reliable man in short yardage, and this season he is an AFC-best 7-for-7 in converting third-and-1.

FAST FACTS:

Browns QB Robert Griffin III rushed for a TD last week in his first start since Week 1, but completed just 12 of 28 passes for 104 yards with an interception.

Browns RB Isaiah Crowell rushed for 113 yards last week and has 209 scrimmage yards (157 rushing) in the past two games. Crowell needs 282 yards on the ground in the last three games to finish with 1,000.

Browns RB Duke Johnson Jr. ranks third among NFL RBs with 107 catches and 965 receiving yards since 2015.

Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has five passing TDs vs. one interception and two rushing TDs in past four games at home. He leads NFL QBs with 471 rush yards. Since 2015, Taylor is the only QB with 5,000 passing yards (5,555) and 1,000 rushing yards (1,039).

Bills RB LeSean McCoy has 380 rushing yards and eight rushing TDs in the past four games at home. He has four rushing TDs in the past four games and had 136 scrimmage yards in the last meeting against Cleveland, Sept. 9, 2012, when he played for Philadelphia.

Bills RB Mike Gillislee has six rushing TDs in the past eight games.

PREDICTION:

With faint playoff hopes, how motivated will the Bills be for this one? This doesn't seem like a totally illogical spot for the Browns' first win, but they'll have to play from the lead and put up some points. However, given how young and depleted the Browns are, the Bills figure to do enough to avoid embarrassment.

OUR PICK: Bills, 27-20.

--Bucky Dent