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KICKOFF: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver. TV: NBC, Kevin Kugler, James Lofton. SERIES HISTORY: 112th regular-season meeting. Chiefs lead series, 57-53. Broncos won seven of the last eight. Most historic meeting between these two teams was on Jan. 4, 1998, when Darrien Gordon broke up an Elvis Grbac pass in the end zone to preserve a 14-10 win in the divisional playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3)
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GAMEDATE: 11/27/16
KEYS TO THE GAME:
This will be the first of two meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos in 2016. They will play again in Week 16. These AFC West rivals, who both trail the 8-2 Oakland Raiders, split two games last season, each beating the other on the road (the Broncos won 31-24 in Kansas City and the Chiefs won 29-13 in Denver).
The Broncos and Chiefs have the toughest remaining strength of schedules in the AFC this season (tied for second toughest overall). Both teams' remaining opponents have a combined .607 win percentage.
It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs' five-game winning streak ended in the same week that they had a negative turnover margin for the first time since a 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 4. Kansas City racked up a plus-11 turnover margin during that winning streak and has a plus-17 margin in its seven wins this year. In three losses, the margin is minus-4.
Although the Broncos would like to open up the offense, if that means an increased giveaway risk, it's a chance they cannot take -- unless the defense can have more games like its four-takeaway performance at the expense of the Saints in Week 10.
It's hard to say a team holding a 7-3 record has been unimpressive, but that's the case with the Chiefs. There were games in which their defense shined by forcing turnovers and not allowing touchdowns. But the defense and offense are coming off a horrid performance in a two-point home loss to Tampa Bay. A similar performance would lead to a very nasty beating from the Broncos, who are familiar with beating up the Chiefs. Over the last 15 seasons, Denver has a 20-12 record against the division rival, with a 12-4 record in games played under mile high conditions. If the Kansas City defense can't keep the Broncos out of the end zone, the offense will need to score a lot more than the 1.8 touchdowns it averages this season.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
--Chiefs RBs Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West and Knile Davis vs. Broncos NT Sylvester Williams and ILBs Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis. If the Kansas City offense can't consistently run the football, its chances of winning drop considerably. The Chiefs' package works only when there is balance, and they have struggled with that in recent weeks. Just over a month ago, they ranked in the top half of the league in rushing yards. Now, they are No. 21, able to push out just 98 per game. Denver's defense is No. 4 overall, but a lowly No. 29 against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 123.7 yards per game. In the Broncos' most recent AFC West games, San Diego's Melvin Gordon ran for 111 yards on 23 carries and Oakland's Latavius Murray tallied 114 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries. The Chiefs need similar production.
--Chiefs OLB Justin Houston vs. Broncos OTs Donald Stephenson and Ty Sambrailo. In his first four NFL seasons, Stephenson was on the field for the Chiefs whenever he wasn't under NFL suspension, injured or in the coaching doghouse. He signed as a UFA with Denver in March and has seven starts. Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said Stephenson or Sambrailo will be at right tackle, competing for the job each week. Stephenson had more than a few post-practice headaches from going against Houston. In one-on-one drills in training camp, Stephenson seldom won a play against Houston. He may know some of the moves of the Chiefs' pass rusher, but Houston also knows which weaknesses he can exploit with Stephenson. After missing the first nine games, Houston showed in his return that he is not quite 100 percent. If Stephenson is at right tackle, Houston will step up his game.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:
Broncos S Darian Stewart. In the final year of his contract, Stewart appears poised for a significant payday in free agency if the Broncos can't get him re-signed before March. Stewart intercepted two passes and forced a fumble in the Broncos' Nov. 13 win at New Orleans, and he has three interceptions in the last four games. He also ranks fourth on the team with 43 tackles, making him one of three defensive backs among the Broncos' top four tacklers.
INJURY REPORT:
Kansas City -- Out: LB Dee Ford (hamstring), DE Jaye Howard (hip), WR Jeremy Maclin (groin). Questionable: LB Derrick Johnson (Achilles), CB Steven Nelson (neck), CB Marcus Peters (hip), DT Dontari Poe (back), DE Kendall Reyes (knee).
Denver -- Out: LS Casey Kreiter (calf).
FAST FACTS:
Chiefs QB Alex Smith passed for 261 yards with a TD and rushed for a score last week. He has a 100-plus passer rating in the past three division road games and aims for his 15th division road game in row with no interceptions.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce caught seven passes for a season-best 108 yards Sunday, recording the fourth 100-yard performance of his career. Kelce has 49 receptions for 574 yards -- making him one of just three tight ends who leads his team in both categories (Carolina's Greg Olsen and Tennessee's Delanie Walker).
Broncos QB Trevor Siemian is 7-2 to start his career -- tied for third-best start among active NFL passers. Siemian has won all four starts at Sports Authority Field.
PREDICTION: Let's go with the weird trend between these two rivals and say the Chiefs will prevail in Denver. They have the better QB and RBs, which should be worth something regardless of where the game is played.
OUR PICK: Chiefs, 28-21.
