Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas. TV -- CBS, Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

SERIES HISTORY: 12th regular-season meeting. Cowboys lead series, 7-4, including 5-1 as the home team. The Bengals haven't beaten the Cowboys in Dallas since a 38-24 win in 1988.

GAMEDATE: 10/9/16

KEYS TO THE GAME:

The Bengals are No. 9 in total defense, but with MLB Vontaze Burfict back from a three-game suspension, the Cowboys anticipate colliding with a rugged bunch on Sunday afternoon. Invited by coach Marvin Lewis to get the "big boy pads" on, Cincinnati will gear up to stop rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott and force rookie QB Dak Prescott to win the game.

That strategy would be cinched if Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (knee) sits a second consecutive game.

Prescott has 132 pass attempts without an interception in four games but Brice Butler and Terrance Williams can't replace Bryant.

Cincinnati needs to convert touchdowns in the red zone, not field goals, which has been the result of nine of the team's 13 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line this season.

It would help to get TE Tyler Eifert (13 touchdowns last season) back on the field, but he missed the first four games with an ankle injury and had back spasms Wednesday.

The Bengals have moved the ball between the 20s as well as any team in the NFL, but with running game slumping, Cincinnati is struggling to find the end zone. Defensively, the Bengals need to control Cowboys TE Jason Witten, especially on third down which Dallas has converted 50% of the time. The Bengals also can't afford a big game from Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. If the Bengals can convert red zone trips into TDs and limit big plays by Elliott, it should be a close game at AT&T Stadium.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Cowboys FB Keith Smith vs. Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict. Burfict is a tackling machine who hits with a vengeance. Smith is all too familiar with that game. Smith has made a successful transition from linebacker. He has also shown a nice touch when asked to carry the ball in short-yardage situations or catch it out of the backfield. He has gained a first down on all four of his touches.

--Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne vs. Bengals WR A.J. Green. Claiborne is having the best season. He leads the league in lowest completion percentage against. But he will have his toughest challenge in terms of size and speed against Green, who has 32 catches for 468 yards and two touchdowns in three games.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Bengals DE Will Clarke -- He came into training camp looking to earn snaps, at least enough to open up a spot for him on the 53-man roster. The West Virginia product has done much more than that through four games. Clarke has five tackles and three sacks, and he's played well enough to not just become a regular part of the rotation but a guy who opposing defenses must account for.

FAST FACTS:

Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 140 yards after initial contact.

The Bengals are playing at AT&T Stadium for the first time.

Cincinnati has allowed TD passes of 74, 55, and 41 yards the past two weeks.

PREDICTION: The game in the trenches rates as a back-alley brawl by NFL standards, and the Cowboys can win if they control the ball and time of possession. Falling behind the Bengals, who have far superior personnel up front to the 49ers, would be more than Dallas' rookie backfield can overcome.

OUR PICK: Bengals, 28-21

--Jeff Reynolds.