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BMW Championship 2016: 10 picks to win tournament

By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange
Rory McIlroy tries to win his second PGA Tour tournament in a row when the first round of the 2016 BMW starts on Thursday. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI
Rory McIlroy tries to win his second PGA Tour tournament in a row when the first round of the 2016 BMW starts on Thursday. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

1. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- Having regained his touch on the greens with a new putting coach and putter, McIlroy will try to repeat his 2012 feat of back-to-back victories in the Deutsche Bank Championship and the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick, where he beat Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood by two strokes. By winning at TPC Boston, he climbed back to No. 3 in the World Golf Rankings and rose 34 spots to No. 4 in the FedEx Cup standings. There has been talk about what a poor season McIlroy is having, but he has won twice and finished in the top 10 on 11 occasions on both major tours. And he has played well at other BMW venues, tying for eighth in his title defense at Cherry Hills and tying for fourth last year at Conway Farms.

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2. Patrick Reed, United States -- With a tie for fifth last week in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Reed increased his lead in the FedEx Cup standings, a week after he won the FedEx Cup playoffs opener, The Barclays. With his 11 finishes in the top 10 and 16 in the top 25 this season on the PGA Tour, he has risen to No. 8 in the world, finishing no worse than a tie for 22nd in the Wyndham Championship in his last seven starts. Reed is making his fourth start in the BMW Championship and his best result was only a tie for 28th last year at Conway Farms. He tied for 53rd in 2014 at Cherry Hills and tied for 59th three years ago, also at Conway Farms. As a PGA Tour rookie, he did not qualify for the 2012 event at Crooked Stick, site of this week's tournament.

3. Adam Scott, Australia -- One of only four players to finish in the top 10 in each of the first two events of the FedEx Cup playoffs, Scott enters the BMW Championship at fifth in the point standings and also is No. 6 in the world. Scott won the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship in back-to-back outings early this year, and has seven top-10 results on the PGA Tour, plus 12 in the top 25 in 18 outings while making the cut each time. He is making his ninth appearance in the BMW Championship and has placed in the top 10 three times, with his best result solo fourth in 2007, when he played the weekend in 67-65. When the tournament was last played at Crooked Stick in 2012, he wound up in a tie for sixth, four shots behind winner McIlroy.

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4. Dustin Johnson, United States -- With his tie for eighth in the Deutsche Bank Championship on Monday, Johnson has recorded seven top-10 finishes since June, including victories in the U.S. Open and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He remains one of the top contenders for the FedEx Cup at third in the point standings and is No. 2 in the world behind Jason Day. Johnson will tee it up in the BMW Championship for the seventh time and he won the tournament in 2010 by one stroke over Paul Casey of England at Cog Hill. He came from three strokes down on the back nine, hitting a brilliant approach shot for a tap-in birdie on the 17th hole that provided the winning margin. Johnson tied for sixth when the tournament was last played at Crooked Stick in 2012 and tied for seventh last year at Conway Farms.

5. Jason Day, Australia -- After opening the FedEx Cup playoffs with a tie for fourth in The Barclays, Day rallied for a tie for 15th in the BMW Championship and remained second in the point standings and No. 1 in the world. He will be defending his title in the BMW Championship this week at Crooked Stick after opening with 61-63 last year at Conway Farms and coasting to a six-stroke victory over rookie Daniel Berger by playing the weekend in 69-69. His only other top-10 result in the third round of the playoffs was a tie for fourth three years ago at Conway Farms, and he failed to qualify for the tournament in 2012, when it was last played at Crooked Stick. Day has won three times this season, but not since the Players Championship in May, after claiming five victories last year.

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6. Jordan Spieth, United States -- With his tie for 21st in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Spieth dropped out of the coveted top five, and is sixth in the FedEx Cup standings, after opening the playoffs with a tie for 10th in the Barclays. Anyone in the top five entering the Tour Championship in two weeks will win the FedEx Cup with a victory in the finale at East Lake in Atlanta. Spieth has played in the BMW Championship each of the last three years, tying for 16th at Conway Farms in 2013, tying for eighth at Cherry Hills in 2014 and tying for 13th last year back at Conway Farms. The defending FedEx Cup champion won five times last year, including the Masters, the U.S. Open and the Tour Championship, but in what is being called a down year he has won twice and placed in the top 10 seven times in 2016.

7. Ryan Moore, United States -- Another one of the four players who has finished in the top 10 in each of the first two FedEx Cup playoff events, Moore tied for seventh in The Barclays and tied for eighth in the Deutsche Bank. On the strength of those results, plus his victory in the John Deere Classic and a total of eight finishes in the top 10 this season on the PGA Tour, he sits 12th in the FedEx Cup standings. Moore needs another high finish in the BMW Championship to get into the top five heading to the Tour Championship in two weeks. He is making his 11th start in the BMW, with his best result a tie for third in 2010 at Cog Hill, and he also tied for 10th in 2012, when the event was last played at Crooked Stick.

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8. Justin Rose, England -- The Olympic gold medalist is in danger of missing the Tour Championship in two weeks, when only the top 30 qualify, having dropped to 50th in the FedEx Cup standings by closing with a 79 to tie for 57th in the Deutsche Bank Championship. He started the season with four early top-10 finishes, capped by a tie for 10th in the Masters, and recorded his best result of the season when he finished solo third in the Wells Fargo Championship. However, his only top-10 finish in nine events since came in the Olympics, and that is considered unofficial. Rose is making his 10th appearance in the BMW Championship, and he won the tournament in 2011 at Cog Hill, taking the lead with an opening 63 and staying in front all the way to beat John Senden of Australia by one stroke. He tied for 16th in his title defense at Crooked Stick.

9. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty has yet to play his very best in the FedEx Cup playoffs, tying for 13th in The Barclays and missing the cut in the Deutsche Bank Championship, but he still has a chance at 15th in the point standings thanks to three runner-up finishes this year. He's a virtual lock to reach the Tour Championship and a big result this week would give him a chance to win the whole thing at East Lake in Atlanta. Mickelson is making his 14th start in the BMW Championship and his best result was a tie for second in 2012 at Crooked Stick, where he shot 64 in round three to take the lead, but closed with a 70 as Rory McIlroy walked away with the title by shooting 67. He also tied for eighth in 2010 at Cog Hill, his only other top-10 result in round three of the playoffs.

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10. Jason Kokrak, United States -- Coming out of nowhere in the FedEx Cup playoffs, Kokrak tied for seventh in The Barclays and tied for eighth in the Deutsche Bank Championship, one of only four players to finish in the top 10 in both tournaments. Still, that puts him only 34th in the point standings and he needs another strong finish this week in the BMW Championship to qualify for the Tour Championship in two weeks at East Lake in Atlanta. Kokrak had only two other top-10 results this season, a tie for second in the Northern Trust Open behind Bubba Watson in February and a tie for sixth in the RBC Heritage in May. The only other time he made it to the third round of the playoffs, he tied for 44th in the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms, and he has never played in the Tour Championship.

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