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1. Is Alabama already a lock? Alabama was the easy No. 1 seed back when there were other undefeated Power 5 teams; now the gap is almost impossibly wide. Assuming the Tide can somehow squeak by the mighty Chattanooga Mocs, only the Iron Bowl against No. 15 Auburn and the SEC Championship against either No. 19 Tennessee or No. 23 Florida remain.
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So if 'Bama somehow loses to Auburn, it probably hangs onto No. 1; nobody else is close. If the Crimson Tide follow that up with a loss in the SEC Championship... 'Bama's still in, right? Even at an implausible 11-2, Alabama's probably the first non-winner of a conference in consideration, and it'll be difficult to find four shinier conference champions among the Power 5.
That's not to say we recommend that Alabama rests its starters after Thanksgiving, obviously. Clearly the right course of action is to cruise into the College Football Playoff at 13-0 and prepare to defend its title. But the few remaining land mines on the Crimson Tide's path might not even register at this point.
2. How likely are we to see Ohio State and Michigan stay in the Top 4 in three weeks?
The spiciest meatball on this week's plate of spaghetti, obviously, is No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan paired off against one another in the middle of the bracket. Of course, these seedings mean nothing in the middle of November, and they'll be facing each other in the last game of the regular season. Presumably, someone's taking a loss and a hit in the rankings. Will it be enough to keep the Big Ten from sending two teams to the playoffs?
There's a second problem for these teams, and it's in Happy Valley. Ohio State may be the highest-ranked Big Ten team this week, but it's essentially third in the Big Ten East pecking order; the Buckeyes need both Penn State and Michigan to lose before they're back in line for a conference championship berth. Obviously OSU would be more than happy to deliver that loss to Ann Arbor, but the only teams left on Penn State's docket this season are Rutgers and Michigan State -- two teams with a combined 1-13 record in Big Ten play (the one win, incidentally, was MSU beating Rutgers).
3. Doesn't Louisville-Clemson deserve a Part II?
It's hard to think of a better football game in 2016 than Louisville at Clemson, under the lights at Death Valley. Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson put on a duel for the ages, and the game even came down to a stop with just enough controversy that both teams can leave the field feeling like they deserved the W, even though that's not how wins and losses work.
We might be on that path again, with Clemson still sitting at No. 4 and Louisville at No. 5. As mentioned before, one of those Big Ten teams ahead of the ACC pair will have to lose. That's not the case with Clemson and Louisville, and it's hard to see where an upset for either might come from.
4. Is the lack of a championship game going to haunt the Big 12 again?
It's no surprise that the Big 12 and the playoff committee have not been the best of friends in the CFP's first two seasons. The conference has received one invite thus far, and that was Oklahoma's No. 4 seed in 2015. With three weeks of play left, this season looks like another empty one for the Big 12.
Oklahoma's still the highest-ranked Big 12 team at No. 9 and the best candidate for sneaking in, but that's a long climb in not a lot of time. The committee's clearly not impressed by one-loss No. 14 West Virginia; WVU's closer to one-loss Boise State (No. 20) than any of the other one-loss Power 5 teams (Washington, No. 6). If No. 11 Oklahoma State wins out but is left out in the cold thanks to that loss at the hands of CMU, that's pretty tough but still, on some level, understandable.
What all of these teams could use, of course, is another quality win, something that would be readily available by winning a conference championship like every other power conference team will be doing. That's a bitter irony after the waste laid to the Big 12's BCS championship dreams by its own title game (five teams lost win-and-you're-in Big 12 Championship games) but so it goes.
5. Is the Pac-12 still alive?
No. 6 Washington only slipped a couple slots after a resounding defeat at the hands of USC (which was rewarded with the No. 13 spot this week), but that might be enough to imperil the Huskies' playoff hopes.
If there's any consolation to be found, it's that the Pac-12 South has quietly stocked the middle of the rankings with its own high-octane teams. No. 9 Colorado and No. 12 Utah sit just ahead of No. 13 USC, and the Buffaloes and Utes will meet in the regular season finale that just might determine the division champion. If that Pac-12 South winner gets enough of a boost, it and Washington might feel like they're playing for a spot in the playoff.
Help us all if No. 22 Washington State locks up the North, though. That's also a distinct possibility.
6. The committee's still sticking with Penn State?
Following a thrilling 45-31 victory over Indiana -- "thrilling" insofar as the Nittany Lions needed 31 points in the last 16 minutes to overcome an Indiana team that turned the ball over five times -- Penn State moved up to No. 8 in the rankings, still potentially in position to make the playoff with just a little bit of help.
Penn State should be commended for beating No. 2 Ohio State, 24-21. No argument there. But that 49-10 drubbing at the hands of No. 3 Michigan also has to play a major factor, to say nothing of the early loss to Pitt (who's still unranked after beating No. 4 Clemson). Those data points matter too, one would assume. So would Penn State's lack of another quality win.
We saw this week what happens when a Top 10 team picks up its third loss to a mediocre team; Texas A&M dropped from No. 8 to No. 25. Presumably, PSU would have been savaged for losing at Indiana as well. If a team can trail the Hoosiers for the first 56 minutes of a game and still move up in the rankings, is the committee really paying any attention to past the wins and losses?
7. No love for Troy?
No. 20 Boise State moved one spot ahead of No. 21 Western Michigan in the Group of 5's annual quest for a New Year's Six bowl game spot; among other things, the Blue Man Group can probably thank No. 22 Washington State's continuing streak to the top of the Pac-12 North. What a world.
Still unranked in the CFP is Troy, however, and that's despite the Trojans' recent first-ever entry into the AP Poll at No. 25 after reaching 8-1 on the season. That one loss? 30-24 at No. 4 Clemson.
Troy's now 5-0 in the Sun Belt after handing Appalachian State its first loss in conference play, and will host fellow conference leader Arkansas State on Thursday night. If Troy takes down the Red Wolves, shouldn't at least a courtesy nod from the CFP committee be next?
