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Kentucky Debby starters to be picked in Dubai, Florida, Arkansas

By Robert Kieckhefer, UPI Racing Writer
Forever Young, shown winning the Saudi Derby, is favorite in Saturday's UAE Derby in Dubai, a Kentucky Derby qualifying race. Photo by Mathea Kelley, courtesy of Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia
1 of 3 | Forever Young, shown winning the Saudi Derby, is favorite in Saturday's UAE Derby in Dubai, a Kentucky Derby qualifying race. Photo by Mathea Kelley, courtesy of Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia

March 29 (UPI) -- Dubai World Cup night and major Kentucky Derby qualifying races in Florida, Arkansas and Dubai top the weekend horse racing agenda.

All of the big events for 3-year-olds are surrounded by nice supporting stakes programs. Santa Anita, however, canceled weekend racing because of expected heavy rain. Let's hope for better weather next weekend for the Santa Anita Derby,

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Happy Easter! Now let's get hopping.

Dubai

Saturday's $12 million Dubai World Cup is a rematch of last month's $20 million Saudi Cup, with American runner Senor Buscador looking to become the first winner of the "Desert Double" and Japan's Ushba Tesoro attempting to become just the second repeat World Cup winner.

The race has plenty of subplots, too. Among them is the presence of Kabirkhan, a 4-year-old son of California Chrome, whose career started in Kazakhstan and then in Russia. His two local victories were the talk of the Dubai Carnival season.

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Two spectacular turf races, the $6 million Dubai Sheema Classic and the $5 million Dubai Turf, attracted top talent from around the globe. Attention focuses on reigning Breeders' Cup Turf and dual English-Irish Derby champion August Rodin, back for a 4-year-old campaign that could propel him to a pinnacle of racing royalty.

There are sprints on both dirt and turf with Florida-trained Sibelius shooting for a repeat win on the dirt in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. The Group 2 Godolphin Mile has those specialists testing the dirt course and the Dubai Gold Cup's 2 miles on the turf provides the challenge for stayers.

Then there's the $1 million Group 2 UAE Derby, which leads us directly to:

The Run for the Roses

The UAE Derby is the only leg of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" conducted outside the United States. It endows the winner with 100 points on that series leaderboard and the runner-up with 50 -- usually plenty to provide a guaranteed spot in the maximum 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.

The horse to watch in this one is Forever Young. The Japanese-trained runner is undefeated after four starts and kept that record intact by chasing down and just barely beating pacesetting American Book'em Danno in the Saudi Derby last month in Riyadh. Should he also win the UAE Derby, he would be among the most fancied in Louisville.

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The field has some other Japanese runners, three from South America and a smattering from Europe. The lone American-trained contender is Pandagate, a long shot against the Japanese star, but a possibility to get into the money.

Meanwhile, back at home, Saturday racing features the $1 million Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.

The weather forecast is favorable in both locations -- always great news. These also are 100-point races so a good finish can be a ticket to the Run for the Roses.

At Gulfstream Park, the question is: Will the good Fierceness or the bad Fierceness show up? The good version of the City of Light colt won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 6 1/2 lengths, making him the 2023 2-year-old champ.

The not-so-good version finished third, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths, in the Grade III Holy Bull in his only previous start this year.

If Fierceness doesn't fire, the likely candidates are Holy Bull winner Hades, undefeated in three starts, and maybe Conquest Warrior, another by City of Light, who won his last start going the Florida Derby distance of 1 1/8 miles over the Gulfstream Park track.

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The rest of the field looks below par for this historic race but they're youngsters so anything could pop up.

In Arkansas, a real scrap looms as a couple powerhouses from the local circuit take on California invader Muth. He is not eligible for the Kentucky Derby because his trainer, Bob Baffert, is banned by Churchill Downs.

But Muth doesn't know that and likely will be the favorite in the 1 1/8-mile test after winning the Grade II San Vicente back home in his first 3-year-old test.

Brad Cox ships Timberlake back up from Fair Grounds. He won Oaklawn's Grade II Rebel more or less for fun last time he made the trip.

Also in the field is Mystik Dan, who jumped up to win the local Grade III Southwest Stakes by 8 lengths Feb. 3 with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. But that race was run in the mud and it was an outlier on his form sheet.

Also look at Just Steel, Informed Patriot and Liberal Arts.

The Lane to the Lilies

With the big Derby preps come final auditions for the Kentucky Oaks.

Ways and Means is the morning-line favorite in Saturday's $250,000 Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she hasn't raced since finishing second in the Grade I Spinaway at Saratoga last September. There are many other ways to go in this competitive heat.

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The first three finishers from the local Honeybee Stakes, led by winner Lemon Muffin, return for Saturday's $750,000 Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

They share the gate with seven other stakes winners including Sunland Park Oaks champ Recharge and Silverbulletday Stakes winner West Omaha. Eyeball Thorpedo Anna as a longshot chance.

Around the world, around the clock

Japan

With many of Japan's best horses entered on Saturday's Dubai World Cup program, Sunday's Grade 1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin Racecourse is an opportunity for some others to get back on track. The race is 2,000 meters on the inner course.

Top prospect: Tastiera. He won the 2023 Tokyo Yushun or Japanese Derby but settled for second in the Kikuka Sho or Japanese St Leger and finished sixth against older foes in the Grade 1 Arima Kinen on Christmas Eve. He hasn't raced since. He gets blinkers for this go.

Australia

Prince of Jenni and Mr Brightside, the 1-2 from the March 16 All-Star Mile at Caulfield, top the list for Saturday's Group 1 Australian Cup at Flemington that goes a quarter-mile farther.

At Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, it's the Group 1 Tancred Stakes and Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at Rosehill Gardens

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England

Good Friday's All-Weather Championship Finals concludes another season of the increasingly popular series that maintains interest in flat racing throughout the winter.

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