Wild day at Churchill Downs upends Kentucky Derby strategies

By Robert Kieckhefer, UPI Racing Writer
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Kentucky Derby favorite Forte gallops on the track during morning workouts on Thursday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Photo by John Sommers II/UPI
1 of 4 | Kentucky Derby favorite Forte gallops on the track during morning workouts on Thursday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Photo by John Sommers II/UPI | License Photo

May 5 (UPI) -- A wild and eventful day at Churchill Downs saw three Kentucky Derby horses scratched, a trainer suspended under the shadow of two horse deaths and two Derby Day starters briefly running loose on the track.

Those events shifted focus from Saturday's 149th Run for the Roses, which promises to be a hard-to-handicap puzzle.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was suspended by the track late Thursday after the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission ordered all his horses, including Derby entrant Lord Miles, scratched. Two of Joseph's horses died at Churchill Downs of undetermined causes in the days leading up to the big race.

Joseph told the Daily Racing Form that the commission informed him he had not been accused of wrongdoing but track officials said in a statement they had "reasonable concerns about the condition of his horses" after the fatalities.

Earlier in the day, Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after spiking a fever.

Late in the evening, Japanese contender Continuar, winner of the "Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby," also was declared out, his trainer saying the colt's preparation wasn't satisfactory.

The scratches made room for Florida Derby third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero and Arkansas Derby second King Russell to start on Saturday. With Continuar out, Mandarin Hero and Derma Sotogake are the remaining Japanese representatives in the field.

There also was some action on the track during Thursday training hours.

Verifying, second in the Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland, lost his rider and ran loose briefly until apprehended by two outriders. Trainer Brad Cox said the colt was fine after the mishap.

Only a few moments later, Kentucky Oaks contender And Tell Me Nolies reared as she was being led off the track, got loose and found her own way back to her temporary home in Barn 24. Trainer Peter Miller reported all well with her, too.

Other than all of that, "all well" was a common mantra on the Churchill Downs backstretch.

"All is good so far," trainer Todd Pletcher said after his trio, favorite Forte, Tapit Trice and Kingsbarn, stretched their legs.

Cox, who has four colts in the Derby and three fillies in the Kentucky Oaks, said not only are the horses doing well, but he also is bearing up under the workload and pressure.

"I'm great," said Cox, who's had plenty of time to steel himself for the big days, as his horses have been all over the leaderboards all year. "It's cool. It's great. Since we got all of our works in and our gate schooling in, I'm just ready for race day to get here."

While attention focused on the suspension and scratches, the Kentucky Derby continued to look like a work in progress.

Thanks to the luck of the draw and the preferred running styles of some of the horses, the outcome could be decided before the field crosses the finish line the first time around.

The 1 1/4-mile first leg of the Triple Crown starts way up at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch with the 20 3-year-olds thundering down the stretch past the grandstand into the clubhouse turn before running another circuit of the oval.

That's always exciting but it might be more of a spectacle this year because many of this year's Derby starters, including the most highly regarded, have a similar style that likely will find them looking for strategic positioning behind the early leaders.

It's unclear who those early leaders will be.

Two of the more interesting prospects drew the No. 1 and No. 2 gates -- not the proverbial kiss of death those stalls were in days of old, but still not optimum and potentially forcing a quick sprint out of the gate.

Two of the Cox runners, Hit Show and Verifying, drew the inside gates, and their first jumps out of the gate will help set the pattern of the race.

Verifying typically is forwardly placed in his races but not on the lead, so jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be under pressure to not get shut off out of the No. 2 stall.

Manny Franco on Hit Show might be placed a little farther back, but can't be trapped on the rail behind too many rivals.

Meanwhile, there's no consensus about who might take the lead in Derby 149.

Kingsbarns won the Grade II Louisiana Derby while leading all the way, and could go out to the front from gate No. 6 on Saturday. But he's also won from off the pace.

Derma Sotogake, one of two Japanese-trained horses in the field, won the Group 2 UAE Derby in Dubai in front-running style, but might have to adapt a different tactic in America's premier race after drawing No. 17 (No. 16 after the late scratch).

That would leave the bulk of the field looking for position through the early furlongs.

Another of Cox's quartet, Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire, is one of many whose preferred running style is to wait comfortably back of the speed and wait to make a run late in the race.

Jason Lautsch, racing manager for his owner, the Albaugh family, said his No. 14 draw could be idea for that strategy -- except for the throng of rivals looking for a similar trip.

"It's all about getting the right trip," he said.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who just missed winning last year's Derby when 80-1 shot Rich Strike got by his favorite, Epicenter, in the final strides, is back with a long shot of his own in Disarm. Asmussen's assessment of the race scenario matched that of many others:

"It's very obvious that the major players in this year's race lack a lot of early speed," he said. "I see a lot of jockeying in the first eighth of a mile. So I'm very curious what will happen in the early stages of the race."

Trainer Bill Mott's runner, Rocket Can, drew No. 18, but Mott, too, said the post position may mean less than racing luck.

"I'm fine with it," Mott said the morning after the draw. "You never know what a good post really is. You can have a bad trip from a good post. So I'm happy to be out there."

Few have learned the lesson better than Kenny McPeek, who saddled Tejano Run to finish second behind Thunder Gulch in the 1995 Derby and hasn't come that close with six runners since then.

"It takes a certain amount of things lining up," McPeek said. "You've gotta have the right horse, the right luck, the right jockey. ... A lot of things have got to come together."

Churchill Downs gets ready to host Kentucky Derby 2023

Morning workouts take place at Churchill Downs ahead of Saturday's Kentucky Derby on in Louisville, Ky., on May 4, 2023. Photo by John Sommers II/UPI | License Photo

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