| Advertisement |
March 17 (UPI) -- Third-seeded Wisconsin and No. 4 Providence are among the teams that should be on upset alert for the first round of the 2022 NCAA men's basketball tournament, based on historical data and the strengths of their foes. Past tournament results indicate that No. 12 through 15 seeds are popular upset picks for those who fill out brackets.
Advertisement
That means UConn, Saint Mary's, Iowa and Houston should be on upset alert as the No. 5 seeds each face No. 12 seeds in the first round. Illinois, UCLA and Arkansas join Providence among the No. 4 seeds who could exit early based on past No. 13 seed performances.
South Dakota State will be the first No. 13 seed to take the floor in the first round. The Jackrabbits (30-4) face No. 4 Providence (25-5) at 12:30 p.m. EDT Thursday in Buffalo, N.Y. That game airs on truTV.
The Jackrabbits enter the tournament on a national-best 21-game winning streak. They earned an automatic bid with a Summit League conference tournament title. Providence lost two of its last three games and was an at-large tournament pick.
"Twenty-one in a row, think about that," Jackrabbits coach Eric Henderson told reporters March 9. "How much pressure this team has had is incredible."
The Jackrabbits average the second-most points per game (86.7) and own the highest 3-point field goal percentage (44.9%) in the country.
No. 14 and No. 15 seeds are much less likely to advance, but there is recent precedent for those upsets. No. 14 seeds are 22-122 vs. No. 3 seeds in first-round games. Six No. 15 seeds upset No. 2 seeds since 2001, including Oral Roberts' win over Ohio State last year.
No. 16 seeds are just 1-143 all-time in the first round of the NCAA tournament. UMBC was the only team to pull off the rare upset when they beat Virginia in 2018. The Retrievers lost to No. 9 Kansas State in the second round.
No. 12 over No. 5 bracket predictions are among the most popular upset picks for good reason. Since 1985, No. 12 seeds are 51-93 vs. No. 5 seeds. Oregon State was the last No. 12 seed to stage the upset. They beat Tennessee in 2021.
Three No. 12 seeds earned first-round upsets in 2019, 2014, 2013 and 2009. At least two No. 12 seeds won first-round games in five of the last 10 tournaments.
No. 14 Longwood faces No. 3 Tennessee in another early game with upset potential. Longwood (26-6) takes an eight-game winning streak into the tournament.
The Lancers won the Big South conference title to claim an automatic bid. The Volunteers (26-7) bring a seven-game winning streak into the tournament. They also earned an automatic bid with an SEC conference tournament title.
The Volunteers face the Lancers at 2:45 p.m. Thursday on CBS.
No. 12 Richmond takes on No. 5 Iowa at 3:10 p.m. Thursday on truTV. Richmond (23-12) won its last four games and claimed the Atlantic 10 title. Iowa (26-9) also won its last four and claimed the Big Ten title.
No. 12 New Mexico State faces No. 5 UConn at 6:50 p.m. Thursday on TNT. New Mexico State (26-6) lost two of its final three regular-season games, but claimed the WAC tournament title to earn an automatic bid. UConn (23-9) lost two of its last four games and received an at-large bid.
No. 12 Indiana advanced to the first round with a First Four victory Tuesday over Wyoming. The Hoosiers (21-13) won three of their last four and face No. 5 Saint Mary's (25-7) at 7:20 p.m. Thursday on TBS.
No. 13 Vermont faces No. 4 Arkansas at 9:20 p.m. Thursday on TNT. Vermont (28-5) brings an eight-game winning streak into the tournament. The Catamounts won the American East to earn an automatic bid. Arkansas (25-8) lost two of its last three and received an at-large bid.
No. 13 Akron is another team that could stage a first-round upset. The Zips (24-9) also clinched an automatic bid and bring an eight-game winning streak into the tournament. They'll face No. 4 UCLA. The Bruins (25-7) were on a five-game winning streak, but lost to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game.
The Zips and Bruins tip off at 9:50 p.m. Thursday on TBS.
Friday's slate of first round games also should include several upsets. No. 14 Montana State takes on No. 3 Texas Tech in a 1:45 p.m. matchup on TNT. Montana State (27-7) is on a six game winning streak and won the Big Sky title. Texas Tech (25-9) lost three of its last six games.
No. 14 Yale battles No. 3 Purdue at 2 p.m. on TBS. Yale (19-11) won nine of its last 11 games and claimed the Ivy League title for an automatic bid. Purdue (27-7) lost three of its last six and received an at-large bid.
No. 13 Chattanooga faces No. 4 Illinois at 6:50 p.m. on TNT. Chattanooga (27-7) is on a five-game winning streak and won the Southern Conference title. Illinois (22-9) received an at-large bid after a Big Ten tournament loss to Indiana.
UAB will be the last No. 12 seed to take the floor in the first round. The Blazers (27-7) face No. 5 Houston (29-5) at 9:20 p.m. on TNT. The Blazers carry a seven-game winning streak into the tournament and own the sixth-best offense in the country, while the Cougars held foes to the worst field goal percentage in college basketball (37.2).
The Blazers earned an automatic bid with a C-USA tournament title. The Cougars also are hot heading into the tournament, with nine wins in their last 10 games.
Colgate faces Wisconsin in the final No. 14 vs. No. 3 first-round matchup. Colgate (23-11) looks primed to log an upset as it carries the third-longest win streak (15 games) into the tournament among the 68-team field. The Raiders also totaled the fifth-most assists in the country this season.
Wisconsin (24-7) lost its last two games and earned an at-large bid.
"We knew that we were going to face a really good team," Wisconsin coach Greg Gard told reporters Sunday. "Colgate, and coach Matt Langel has done a really good job there.
"We understand that when that ball goes up on Friday, we are going to have to be ready to play against a really good team."
NCAA tournament teams will play second-round games Saturday and Sunday. The Sweet 16 will be March 24 and 25. The Elite Eight is scheduled for March 26 and 27. The Final Four will be played April 2. The National Championship game is set for April 4.
NCAA tournament games will air on CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV.
