You could make money betting the Derby, even with an odds-on favorite

Sept. 5 (UPI) -- How can a $2 bettor make any money on the Kentucky Derby when Tiz the Law is likely to go to the post as a heavy odds-on favorite?

It's always fun to win but who wants a $3 -- or less -- return on a $2 win ticket? Big races like this should be hit for a lot more.

Well, there are a couple ways to look at it. One would be to decide Tiz the Law really might not win. That would be a risky proposition, based on the available evidence.

"It's a little daunting being the 3-5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but I think he's earned it," Jack Knowlton, head of the Sackatoga Stables' ownership group, said Thursday morning on the Churchill Downs backstretch.

He's right. So let's look for another approach.

Even if Tiz the Law wins by the length of the stretch, there could be a reasonable return on a trifecta or exacta ticket if a long shot (or two) finishes in the top three. This being the Kentucky Derby, that's not unlikely.

But where to look for those lucky long shots?

Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A.P. certainly won' be a really long shot. He's the 5-1 second pick on the morning line. But if he actually starts at that price and he's the most likely to win if the favorite falters, let's get him on the ticket!

Trainer Bob Baffert has two colts in the race as he seeks a record-tying sixth Derby win. The better-regarded of the two is Authentic but, despite Baffert's protestations, its debatable he will stay the 1 1/4 miles.

The other Baffert entry, Thousand Words, looks like he's improving at the right time and will be a square price.

Ny Traffic is the colt who almost caught Authentic in the Haskell. He has been moving in the right direction and might benefit from the additional distance. He doesn't win often, but hasn't missed a top-three finish in any of his five starts this year.

So, let's try a $1 trifecta box with Tiz the Law (17), Honor A.P. (16), Thousand Words (10) and Ny Traffic (15). That will cost $24. If Tiz the Law wins and Honor A.P. is second, it won't pay much. But there's the potential for a decent payoff if some other combination finishes 1-2-3.

Another thought: If Tiz the Law is a lock to win, how about a superfecta bet with him on top? A 10-cent superfecta with a single to win and six horses boxed underneath only costs $12. If some bombers finish second through fourth, kaching! Well, a muted kaching! It's only a 10-cent wager.

For that, consider the aforementioned Authentic (18), deep closer Enforceable (3), who could pick up some pieces from a hot early pace, and Max Player (2), who was third behind Tiz the Law in both the Belmont and the Travers.

The most important consideration here: Never bet more than you're willing to lose.