After Saturday's 135th Kentucky Derby, you're likely to look back at the data and say to yourself, "How the heck did I miss that?"
And the odds are you will miss it -- whether it's the winner, the exacta, the trifecta or the superfecta. This year's 20-horse field is about as contentious as any of the previous 134.
The morning-line favorite is I Want Revenge, starting from Post Position No. 13 under teenage jockey Joe Talamo. He comes into the Derby off impressive wins in the Gotham and Wood Memorial in New York. But wait! Trainer Jeff Mullins had to ship the Stephen Got Even colt out of California to get him on the winning track. Out west, he couldn't beat the likes of Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem – both of whom will line up against him in Louisville.
OK, then, how about taking Pioneerof the Nile? After chasing I Want Revenge and Papa Clem out of town, he went on to win the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby. But then, you ask – who was left for him to beat? Well, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff finished second and third in the Santa Anita Derby. And they also will be running in the Derby.
Surely we can find some clues from the Florida races? Surely not. Dunkirk, a $3.7 million yearling who didn't get to the races as a 2-year-old, won his first two races at Gulfstream Park and was the heavy favorite in his first stakes start in the Florida Derby. But the track was souped up on Florida Derby Day and Dunkirk finished second in that event to Quality Road.
OK, then, how about Quality Road? Sorry. He developed hoof problems and won't make the Churchill Downs race.
Injuries also claimed the stars of the Arkansas Circuit, Old Fashioned and Win Willy. And the winner of the Louisiana Derby, Friesan Fire, hasn't run since that race in mid-March.
And if that's not complicated enough, consider Desert Party, the star of the Dubai-based Godolphin Racing Stable. He won at Arlington and Saratoga last summer before shipping to the Middle East for the winter, won twice in Dubai but then lost to stablemate Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby. Both now will try Churchill Downs on Saturday.
But if Godolphin is serious about this, why isn't the stable's star jockey, Frankie Dettori, making the trip? He has lots of other options, but the Kentucky Derby is a major unattained goal for Sheik Mohammed.
And that just scratches the surface of the possibilities in this wide-open race.
West Side Bernie was second in the Wood in his last start. Musket Man won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby in his last two races. Advice won the Lexington on Keeneland's artifical surface. General Quarters and Hold Me Back were 1-2 in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Mine That Bird, Join in the Dance, Atomic Rain, Summer Bird, Nowhere to Hide and Flying Private appear to be outsiders. But all of them have shown enough to get them this far and any of them could be a factor in Saturday's race with any kind of improvement.
Finally, the best horse often doesn't win the Kentucky Derby.
With 20 horses, most of them still learning their business, all fighting for position, the "trip" frequently is as important as raw talent. The horse can't run if he has nowhere to go. And the huge, unruly crowd – well into the mint julep supply by Derby post time – can unnerve even the most placid horse.
What to do?
I think I'll take a $1 trifecta box with four horses: Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy and Desert Party. A good all-longshot tri box might have Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, Musket Man and Papa Clem.
But be prepared to look back at the actual result and ask yourself, "How the heck did I miss that?" And here I'm thinking about Friesan Fire.
You can't use 'em all.
The field for Saturday's 135th running of the Kentucky Derby, for 3-year-olds, 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill Downs main track, in post-position order with jockey and trainer:
1. West Side Bernie, Stewart Elliott, Kelly Breen, 30-1
2. Musket Man, Eibar Coa, Derek Ryan, 20-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff, John Velazquez, Eoin Harty, 30-1
4. Advice, Rene Douglas, Todd Pletcher, 30-1
5. Hold Me Back, Kent Desormeaux, Bill Mott, 15-1
6. Friesan Fire, Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 5-1
7. Papa Clem, Rafael Bejarano, Gary Stute, 20-1
8. Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, Bennie Wooley, 50-1
9. Join in the Dance, Chris DeCarlo, Todd Pletcher, 50-1
10. Regal Ransom, Alan Garcia, Saeed bin Suroor, 30-1
11. Chocolate Candy, Mike Smith, Jerry Hollendorfer, 20-1
12. General Quarters, Julien Leparoux, Thomas McCarthy, 20-1
13. I Want Revenge, Joe Talamo, Jeff Mullins, 3-1 (favorite)
14. Atomic Rain, Joe Bravo, Kelly Breen, 50-1
15. Dunkirk, Edgar Prado, Todd Pletcher, 4-1
16. Pioneerof the Nile, Garrett Gomez, Bob Baffert, 4-1
17. Summer Bird, Chris Rosier, Tim Ice, 50-1
18. Nowhere to Hide, Shaun Bridgmohan, Nick Zito, 50-1
19. Desert Party, Ramon Dominguez, Saeed bin Suroor, 15-1
20. Flying Private, Robby Albarado, D. Wayne Lukas, 50-1
