Researchers at Italy's National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology say Campi Flegrei volcano, in southern Italy, is at risk of experiencing an eruption, like the one shown here at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. File Photo by Bruce Omori/Paradise Helicopters/EPA-EFE
June 9 (UPI) -- The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy is at risk of erupting, researchers at Italy's National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology and University College London said in a new study published in the Communications Earth and Environment journal from Nature.
The ground beneath the coastal town of Pozzuoli has been rising about 4 inches a year for the past decade, investigators reported Friday. They also noted a series of persistent small earthquakes, including 600 recorded in April.
About 360,000 people live on the roof of the volcano, which resembles a gentle depression and is not an obvious mountain. It is located about 9 miles west of Naples, Italy, and is partially submerged beneath the Bay of Pozzuoli.
Researchers at University College London created a simulation "to interpret the patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift, and concluded that parts of the volcano had been stretched nearly to a breaking point."
"Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture," study lead author Christopher Kilburn of University College London Earth Sciences said in a news release.
"However, this does not mean an eruption is guaranteed. The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur," Kilburn continued.
"This was the first time we have applied our model, which is based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano," Kilburn said, "we will now have to adjust our procedures for estimating the chances of new routes being opened for magma and gas to reach the surface."
The volcano hasn't erupted since 1538 but has experienced increased geological activity in recent decades.
Researchers first used UCL's model in 2017 and say the Campi Flegrei volcano has experienced an increasing number of small earthquakes in line with the model's predictions.