El Nino chances drop again, lowering chances for bad winter

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 (UPI) -- The chances for an El Nino event have once again dropped, lowering the chances of a particularly harsh winter that was predicted.

The chances of an El Nino event before the end of the year are now 58 percent, down from 80 percent in July.

EL Nino is characterized by warmer water in the Pacific Ocean and can cause more intense winter storms.

If there is an El Nino, it may be weak, which is hard for climate models to catch. Southern California Weather Force claims they gauged a weak El Nino event at .6, the bottom of the El Nino scale.

"The shift toward weaker, more centrally located El Ninos is more difficult for climate models to capture," wrote Emily Becker in the Climate.gov ENSO's blog. "The depth of the thermocline, equatorial winds, and sea surface temperatures are inextricably linked -- and so the combination of certain factors results in changes in how well ENSO can be predicted."

El Nino could flicker out altogether, but that doesn't necessarily mean the winter will be mild.