Electric cars to remain niche: US Energy Information Administration

Despite electric vehicles gaining popularity they will account for only one percent of all cars sold in 2040, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook report for 2014.

Fossil fuel-powered cars will continue to be the top sellers, accounting for nearly eight in ten cars sold, down marginally from last year. The number of diesel cars will be 4 percent and the number of hybrids will be 5 percent of the total cars sold, up from 3 percent last year. But only one percent of cars will be plug-in hybrids, with another one percent of cars being fully electric.

“The numbers of LDVs [light duty vehicles] powered by fuels other than gasoline, such as diesel, electricity, or E85, or equipped with hybrid drive trains, such as plug-in hybrid or gasoline hybrid electric, increase modestly from 18 percent of new sales in 2012 to 22 percent in 2040,” the report states.

Last year, 14.5 million cars were sold nationwide and based on the numbers above fewer than 300,000 fully electric and plug-in hybrids will be sold, far fewer than the current administrations goal to have a million such cars sold in 2015.

On the positive side, fuel economy of all cars will rise from 21.5 miles per gallon to 32.7 miles per gallon in 2040 and fuel will cost $3.90 per gallon, adjusted for inflation, as compared to a previous forecast of $4.40 per gallon.

[U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook] [Wired]