WASHINGTON, April 12 (UPI) -- Spring rains in the eastern Horn of Africa are likely to begin late this year and be substantially lower than normal, forecasters said.
Through May, the rains are expected to total only 60 to 85 percentage of the average rainfall in this region, a significant drop from earlier forecasts that could have significant impacts on crop production, rangeland regeneration for livestock, and replenishment of water resources, officials said.
The rainfall projections were completed by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which monitors high risk areas of the developing world with the most food insecurity, identifying critical situations in which food aid will be needed.
FEWS NET is sponsored and led by the U.S. Agency for International Development Office of Food for Peace, partnering with the U.S. Geological Survey, Chemonics International, Inc., NASA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
"Rainfall projections were estimated by looking very closely at all the prior droughts from March-May since 1979 in the eastern Horn of Africa," USGS scientist Chris Funk, who led this research, said.
"We found that sea surface temperatures in the western/central Pacific and the Indian oceans are key drivers of rainfall during that time period," he said in a USGS release Thursday.
"So we compared sea surface temperatures from past years to March 2012, and developed an updated rainfall forecast for this spring season.
"Essentially, our research has progressed to the point where we can recognize fairly well the climate patterns linked to the recent droughts, and we hope this helps identify potential bad seasons in advance to raise awareness."
