ATHENS, Ga., Nov. 16 (UPI) -- U.S. scientists say a new mathematical model can help predict the risk of extinction for species that migrate between breeding and wintering sites.
Researchers at the University of Georgia and Tulane University said the model may make such predictions more accurate.
"The concern is that for a lot of species, we don't know very much about their wintering grounds," Richard Hall, a research scientist in the UGA Odum School of Ecology said. "Here in the United States we do a pretty good job of conserving breeding habitat for species of concern, but often we have no idea what kinds of threats are facing their non-breeding areas."
Hall and Tulane University's Caz Taylor developed a new model based on a theory of population dynamics known as metapopulation theory, a UGA release said Tuesday.
Metapopulation theory describes the fraction of suitable habitat patches occupied by a species.
When individuals from a sub-population emigrate from their original site to previously unoccupied patches of suitable habitat, they either thrive or die out, and when the rate of successful colonization exceeds the rate of extinction, the proportion of occupied patches rises and the metapopulation is likely to persist.
In their model Hall and Taylor added more complexity, dividing habitat patches into those used during breeding season and those used for wintering.
"What our model shows is that even if the populations in the breeding areas look healthy, without knowing the state of the non-breeding areas, we could be vastly underestimating the likelihood of extinction," Hall said.
