WASHINGTON, July 8 (UPI) -- In October 1957, a signal from a satellite launched by the Soviet Union shattered the calm of a tranquil autumn in the United States and ignited a titanic race between the two nations to get into space.
The satellite, named Sputnik and the world's first into orbit, came to symbolize failing U.S. leadership. It shook up the nation's space plans, gave rise to ambitious new projects, and attracted much more money to what was then a space program starved for cash and attention.
Now, nearly half a century later, history just might repeat itself. This time, the catalyst for shaking Washington out of its malaise following February's shuttle Columbia tragedy could come from another national rival. The People's Republic of China is about to enter the very exclusive club -- whose current members include only America and Russia -- of nations capable of sending humans into space.
China's march toward human spaceflight has been matched with a determined and measured program of technology development. The nation not only has made a highly public commitment to human space travel, but also has announced a series of far-reaching projects as goals. These include space stations in low Earth orbit, sending astronauts -- called "Taikonauts" in China -- to the moon and constructing a permanent base there. These boasts are being taken seriously, thanks to a successful series of unpiloted flight trials of Chinese manned spacecraft.
The craft, named Shenzhou, began development in 1992 and so far has been launched successfully four times, the first of which was in November 1999. Each year since, China has flown a new, more capable, unpiloted variant of the ship. Its design closely follows the Russian Soyuz, but Shenzhou differs in several major ways.
Slightly larger than its Russian counterpart, Shenzhou is constructed of more advanced components and lighter materials than the 30-year-old Soyuz. It can carry up to three pilots, and features a laboratory unit to house experiments and research equipment.
Unlike the Russian craft, this module can be separated from the manned capsule and remain in orbit by itself for several days or weeks of experiments. The Chinese have discussed several possible uses of the unit, which can act as a mini-space station. Shenzhou has larger and more extensive solar panels than Soyuz, which means its crews can draw more electrical power for their experiments.
Following the launch and successful return of the first Shenzhou flight, each succeeding mission has flown more advanced prototypes. Shenzhou 2, launched into space in January 2001, carried animals -- a monkey, a dog and a rabbit. In its weeklong space flight, the mission tested repeated firings of the craft's rocket engines, as well as the ability of the oxygen system to keep its three small flyers alive.
According to space analyst Mark Wade, Shenzhou 2 shaved about 100 kilograms from the weight of the first capsule, mainly by using more advanced wiring. This improved capacity for payloads and equipment. Shenzhou 3, launched in March 2002, continued the developmental program and Shenzhou 4, launched last December, was a virtual dress rehearsal for the upcoming piloted flight later this year.
Although Shenzhou 4 was an unmanned test, Chinese space officials chose a flight crew to test launch procedures. Two Taikonauts even boarded the capsule on the launching pad, as they would do on an actual mission, and conducted pre-launch preparations just as they would on their real day of launch.
Following the fourth vehicle's successful test flight, China revealed Shenzhou 5 would carry a crew into orbit "in the second half of 2003." Subsequent details of the flight were released, along with indications that the piloted Shenzhou 5, likely to liftoff this fall, would be the most advanced version ever.
If China begins to orbit humans, should the West be concerned?
Perhaps. One reason is any manned space effort carries both commercial and military implications. China has modified a satellite-carrying rocket, the Long March 2E, to lift the Shenzhou series. Named the 2F, the launch vehicle contains several features that likely will migrate to the commercial space effort.
The 2F flies with an abort system that can blast the manned capsule free of the booster in the event of a launching mishap. This same system, tested for the first time on Shenzhou 3, is part of advanced computer software that closely follows the performance of the rocket during its flight. The technology also can be adapted to the unpiloted 2E cargo rockets, making them both safer and more reliable satellite-launching vehicles.
The 2F also has an advanced upper stage that can insert the manned capsule into orbit more precisely. The autopilot, when adapted to the commercial satellite launchers, can add years to the life of satellites by putting them into a more accurate orbit above the Earth.
If a rocket injects a satellite even a few miles from its intended orbit, the satellite's thrusters must make up the difference. Because satellites can carry only so much fuel for such purposes, the less they need to operate thrusters to make up for the inaccuracies of their boosters, and the more fuel they will have available to maintain their orbits precisely.
This and other features of the Shenzhou's launcher will improve its value both as a commercial rocket and a military payload delivery system.
The Chinese should be congratulated for their dedication to advanced space technology, but will these developments serve to stimulate the U.S. space program, under criticisms since the February Columbia shuttle accident for a lack of long range vision and advanced plans?
"NASA has lost its constituency, because nobody knows what they stand for, or why we need them," said Thomas Rogers, a former deputy secretary of defense during the Johnson Administration, and now chief scientist of the Space Transportation Association in Arlington, Va.
"There's this malaise, a sense that they lack a goal, a purpose," Rogers told United Press International. China's emergence as a space power could serve to galvanize attention on shortcomings in U.S. space plans. The prospect of a Chinese space station, more accurate satellite launchers, manned capsules and future moon bases might serve to reawaken America's competitive instincts in space.
"What they really need," Rogers said, "is for somebody to light a fire under their (NASA's) ass, to get them going again!"
