Analysis: 'Tonight's' orderly transition

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 27 (UPI) -- When Conan O'Brien takes over as host of "The Tonight Show" after Jay Leno leaves in 2009, he will face a different set of challenges than Leno did when he succeeded the legendary Johnny Carson in 1992.

NBC's announcement Monday that Leno will leave "Tonight" came on the same day that the network celebrated the show's 50th anniversary. But, to paraphrase the automobile ad copy that has become a standard expression of change in popular culture, this is not your father's "Tonight" show.

The show will be 55 when O'Brien becomes just the fifth permanent host in its history. Steve Allen held the job for three years, from 1954-57, and was replaced by Jack Paar, who had a 5-year run before turning the show over to Carson -- who enjoyed an astonishing 30-year-run as the king of late night TV.

Leno was a guest host during the last five years of Carson's run, and was named to succeed Carson after an intense period of public speculation and intense behind-the-scenes jockeying by virtually everyone in show business who had a claim -- real or imagined -- on the gig.

At the time, David Letterman's late night show came on NBC after "The Tonight Show." Letterman left the network for CBS, and has been in competition with Leno in the 11:35 p.m. time slot ever since.

The Leno-Letterman showdown was the subject of "The Late Shift," a best-selling book by New York Times television writer Bill Carter, who collaborated with Hollywood veteran George Armitage on the Emmy-nominated teleplay for the HBO movie of the same name.

In an interview with United Press International, Armitage said the announcement that O'Brien will succeed Leno in 2009 was "a long throw" for NBC, but he said it will have the effect of eliminating the prospect of a new round of infighting.

"It must mean they really want to hang onto (O'Brien) and be sure nobody steals him in the meantime," said Armitage.

NBC Entertainment President Kevin Reilly confirmed as much in a statement announcing the changing of the "Tonight" show guard.

"Late-night talent is a rare commodity," said Reilly. "Cultivating it and keeping it has always been a priority here and with this announcement, we couldn't be in a better place."

O'Brien has been with NBC since 1988, when he joined the "Saturday Night Live" writing staff. "Late Night with Conan O'Brien," which follows "The Tonight Show," premiered on Sept. 13, 1993.

O'Brien's contract was due to expire next year, and there had been speculation about his future -- particularly after Craig Kilborn left CBS' "Late Late Show." With Kilborn out as an obvious choice to replace David Letterman when he leaves CBS' 11:35 p.m. "Late Show," speculation began that CBS might court O'Brien for the gig. However, according to Daily Variety, there was never any prospect that O'Brien would jump to CBS.

"'The Tonight Show' is one of the great franchises in television," said O'Brien in a statement, "and I am thrilled to get this opportunity."

The late-night environment has changed substantially since Leno took over for Carson. The number of viewing choices has multiplied, and the audience for the "Tonight" and "Late Late" shows has eroded.

Still, Armitage -- whose feature film directing credits include "The Big Bounce" (2004) and "Grosse Pointe Blank" (1997) -- said the shows remain at the head of the line when it comes to booking the most desirable guests on late-night talk.

"When I do a movie, the first thing everybody tries to get (to promote it) is Leno and Letterman," he said.

O'Brien will be 46 when he takes over for Leno -- four years older than Leno was when he took over for Carson. He will be expected to attract a younger group of viewers than Leno will leave behind when he signs off, at age 59.

According to figures provided by NBC, "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has won or tied in the late night ratings race for nine consecutive TV seasons. In its 11 years on the air, "Late Night with Conan O'Brien" has never lost a sweep month -- and for the 2003-04 season, the show has averaged 2.5 million viewers, and won among adults 18-49 by a margin of 71 percent over its closest competitor.

The essence of late night -- including the nightly search for what Armitage called the "water-cooler moment" -- has remained constant at least since the Jack Paar days. The approach has changed, however.

The loose, informal conversation -- the reason why the set has always had comfortable furniture, after all -- has given to way tightly scripted, pre-digested spots in which guests rarely deviate from a standard formula that involves telling a funny story or two and promoting their latest entertainment product. O'Brien's comedy tends to be a little more adventurous than Leno's, but it remains to be seen whether he will have much effect on what has become the conventional way of doing late night talk at 11:35 p.m.

Of course, there is no telling what will happen to the late-night environment over the next five years. As cable and satellite continue to penetrate the TV market, and drain off more of broadcast TV's share of the overall audience, it may be that being the host of "The Tonight Show" will be not much more than one of the better jobs in television -- rather than the dream job it traditionally has been for entertainers.

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