WASHINGTON, July 14 (UPI) -- The Bush administration is vigorously pushing two policy objectives regarding Iran. One is to deter Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Indeed, President George W. Bush stated recently that the United States "will not tolerate" Iran having such weapons. The other goal is to encourage regime change by backing students and other dissidents who are challenging the rule of the religious elite. Both objectives are worthy, but if the administration is not careful, its strategy could backfire.
All Americans would sleep easier if Iran remained nonnuclear. But the administration's enthusiasm for regime change makes it more, not less, likely that Tehran will seek to build a nuclear arsenal. Iranian leaders notice how the United States treats nonnuclear adversaries. Washington has engaged in nine major military operations since the end of the Cold War -- an extraordinary pace. And Tehran certainly noticed how easily the United States used its powerful military to conquer Iran's next door neighbor, Iraq.
President Bush's explicit linkage of Iran to Iraq and North Korea in his famous "axis of evil" comment makes the Iranians even more nervous. Now that one member of the axis has been taken down, it would scarcely constitute paranoia if Iran's leadership concluded that their country might be next on Washington's hit list. The Bush administration's professed enthusiasm for regime change reinforces that apprehension. Since Iran can never hope to match America's conventional military capabilities, its most appealing -- and cost effective -- option is to build a nuclear deterrent.
Washington's strategy of promoting regime change could backfire in another way. There is little doubt that a growing number of young Iranians are fed up with the repressive rule of the mullahs and want a more open society. But outspoken U.S. endorsements of their resistance campaign could be the kiss of death. U.S. support gives the religious hierarchy the perfect pretext to portray even cautious advocates of political reform as traitors and American stooges.
We must remember that there are millions of Iranians who have not made up their minds yet about whether to support the current ruling elite or back the challengers. Many of those moderates seem increasingly disillusioned with the mullahs, but they are not necessarily fond of the United States. A recent poll of Iranian opinion by Zogby International showed alarmingly high levels of hostility toward U.S. foreign policy as well as suspicions about U.S. motives.
A good many Iranians also remember that the United States interfered once before in their country's internal affairs, and the outcome was not a happy one. It was a coup orchestrated by the CIA in 1953 that ousted a democratic government and restored the autocratic Shah of Iran to power. His corrupt and repressive rule for the next quarter century paved the way for the Islamic fundamentalist revolution. Any hint of CIA meddling today would cause the moderates to make common cause with the ruling religious elite.
The trend in Iran is at least mildly encouraging. Opposition to the mullahs is growing by the month.If the United States resists the temptation to envelop the reformers in a suffocating embrace, there is a very good chance that the Iranian people will engage in regime change on their own within a few years. The emergence of a wholly indigenous democratic government in Iran could have profound implications not only for that country but for the entire Islamic world.
In short, the Bush administration should proceed cautiously. It needs to avoid needless saber rattling that could spook the current regime and cause it to pursue a crash program to acquire nuclear weapons. And Washington should be very careful about public expressions of support for Iranians who are pressing for political change, lest the U.S. endorsement undermine their efforts.
This is a delicate time in Iran. Adept U.S. policies could well be rewarded with beneficial changes. Conversely, heavy-handed policies could produce extremely unpleasant results.
-- Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and is the author or editor of 15 books on international affairs including Peace & Freedom: Foreign Policy for a Constitutional Republic.
-- Outside View commentaries are written for UPI by outside writers on subjects of public interest.
