Hollywood Analysis: So far, so good

LOS ANGELES, June 23 (UPI) -- So far this summer, the U.S. box office has failed to produce a hit the size of "Spider-Man" or "Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones," but perhaps more significantly the box office has also managed to avoid a "Godzilla"-style flop.

Four movies released in May -- the unofficial start of the summer box-office season -- have already entered the list of the top 50 all-time movie hits. Only one is in striking distance of a coveted spot in the $300 million club.

A handful of titles coming soon to a theater near you will likely generate big numbers as well. It remains to be seen whether the likes of "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle," "T3: Rise of the Machines" or "Pirates of the Caribbean" has the moxie to crack $300 million.

It will be remarkable if Hollywood gets through the summer without at least one high-profile picture hitting the marketplace with a dull thud.

With the super-sized numbers turned in by "The Hulk" -- $62.6 million -- the studios, distributors and exhibitors have managed to keep the ball in the air for another week and avoid the deflating experience of sending a picture to market wrapped in hype that it could not live up to. Tim Burton's "Planet of the Apes" comes to mind.

Director Ang Lee's screen version of the Marvel comic book character Bruce Banner finished its opening weekend with a few box-office records to its credit -- including the biggest June opening of all time. However, analysts could not help but notice that the numbers for the big green guy dropped from Friday to Saturday, and again from Saturday to Sunday.

At the rate it is going "The Hulk" will follow the pattern that has been established by most of the big hits of the summer season so far -- burning out quickly after a super-heated opening.

The four biggest hits of the year so far all arrived in theaters with high expectations, which -- for the most part -- they met or exceeded.

"The Matrix Reloaded" has grossed $264.5 at the U.S. box office after its record-shattering opening. The sequel to "The Matrix" has easily outdone its predecessor, but early projections of a $300 million domestic gross may prove to be overly optimistic. Still, AOL-Time Warner stockholders should be pleased with the movie's worldwide gross to date -- more than $642 million.

"Finding Nemo" was expected to do well, but analysts did not generally see the computer generated comedy outperforming "Monsters, Inc." Yet there is a distinct possibility that the fish story will surpass the monster tale to become the biggest hit in the five-picture history of Disney's lucrative relationship with Pixar. After four weeks in release, "Finding Nemo" has taken in $228 million, and may eventually hit $300 million. "Monsters, Inc." grossed $255.9 million in 2001.

"Bruce Almighty" has become Jim Carrey's second-biggest hit -- after "How the Grinch Stole Christmas" -- by taking in $210.7 million. Another Universal release, "X2: X-Men United," has grossed $209.7 million to date.

The summer has seen a few flops, to be sure -- but the closest thing to a high profile flameout is the new Harrison Ford buddy-action comedy "Hollywood Homicide," which opened poorly and looks to close early. Michael Douglas also failed to connect with the remake of "The In-Laws." The new Kate Hudson-Luke Wilson romantic comedy "Alex & Emma" also fizzled, but -- unlike the Ford and Douglas projects -- it didn't arrive in theaters with a prefab reputation to live up to.

In general, the U.S. box office has enjoyed a fair number of respectable hits -- along the lines of "2 Fast 2 Furious," which has become the ninth movie of 2003 to gross more than $100 million. "The Italian Job" is turning into a more modest hit, with $67.7 million in hand over four weeks in release.

"Spider-Man" and "Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones" led the U.S. box office to a record-breaking year in 2002. Without such muscular hits to lead the way this year, the box office is running about 3 percent behind last year's pace.

If the box office is to catch up with last year's pace, it will need splendid performances from "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle," "T3: Rise of the Machines," and several other pictures from which much is expected.

The list includes the new Reese Witherspoon comedy "Legally Blonde 2," the DreamWorks animated feature "Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas," Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean" and the upcoming Sean Connery action-adventure "The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen."

Big numbers are also possible for the Will Smith-Martin Lawrence reunion in "Bad Boys II" and the third "Spy Kids" movie -- "Spy Kids 3D: Game Over" as well as "Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life" and "American Wedding," the newest entry in the raunchy comedy "American Pie" franchise.

With each succeeding week, analysts will be watching for the first true disappointment of the summer.