Analysis: What comes after Arafat?

WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 (UPI) -- Would a "regime change" in the Palestinian Authority help or hinder peace? Would it encourage or deter suicide bombings by the Islamist fundamentalists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad? Those are the question many Middle East observers are asking themselves as we come to the close of yet another violence-filled year in the Levant.

According to some Palestinian officials, a struggle among Yasser Arafat's tight inner circle has already started, with several of his close associates jostling to position themselves as possible replacements at the head of the troubled Palestinian Authority. But each one comes with a certain amount of baggage.

Among a group of Mideast observers interviewed, including several Palestinian activists, none was able to offer a clear-cut answer as to who might emerge as a potential replacement for Arafat in the event of his death, or in the unlikely case of his stepping down, or aside. However, the man most likely to succeed Arafat is Mahmoud Abbas, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mazen. Until recently, he appeared to be Arafat's own choice, before he was suddenly sidelined by the Palestinian leader after a disagreement over the use of militias and firearms in the intifada, which Abu Mazen was reported to have said was "a grave mistake." This statement did not go down well with Arafat.

Aside from Arafat, Abu Mazen is the only surviving member of the "founding fathers" of Fatah, the largest and most prominent of the Palestinian resistance organizations that are grouped within the Palestine Liberation Organization. More recently, the Hamas movement, has been far more successful in gathering funds, something they have accomplished mostly through independent fundraising through mosques and donations from Islamic nations and rich individuals. Still, politically, Fatah remains the predominant group in the Palestinian territories.

But it remains far from a shoo-in for Abu Mazen. In the words of one Hamas official, "Abu Mazen will not last a day," because he lacks the history and the charisma of Arafat, and he is not widely accepted by Fatah. Furthermore, Abu Mazen suffers from prostate cancer.

The other "founding father" still alive today is Farouk Kaddoumi, aka Abu Lotf, who acts as the PLO's foreign minister. But Kaddoumi, who rejected the Oslo peace accords and lives in Tunis, Tunisia, according to several observers, stands no chance of ever replacing Arafat. He is alien to the occupied territories and would never be accepted by either the autochthonous Palestinians, the Israelis, or the Americans.

The rest of the original founders of Fatah, such as Abu Iyad, Abu Jihad and Khaled al Hassan, have either been killed by Israeli hit teams, or have since died.

The next potential candidates to replace Arafat are the "new guard," otherwise known as the "insiders." These are the leaders who grew up inside the occupied territories. Unlike the first group who came into political maturity while living in exile in Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia, the new guard grew up living and dealing with the Israeli occupation. Among them are Gebril Rajoub, Hani el Hassan, Nabil Shaath, Gaza Security Chief Mohammad Dahlan (preferred by the United States) and Marwan Barghouti -- a man currently held in an Israeli jail and awaiting trial on charges of terrorism.

Up until his arrest, Barghouti was the preventive security chief in the West Bank and enjoyed tremendous power and popularity, including close links to the CIA. Barghouti has already served time in Israeli jails where he learned to speak fluent Hebrew. Some people in the Middle East who tend to see conspiracy theories at every twist and turn, advance the argument that Barghouti was purposely jailed in order to give him greater credence and clout as a future leader of the Palestinian Authority.

Dahlan resigned as Gaza security chief earlier this year to become Arafat's national security adviser. It was a job he never bothered to assume because he believed there was nothing more he could do within the Arafat administration, as the Palestinian leader tends to play his cards close to his chest.

Alon Ben-Meir, Middle East project director at the World Policy Institute in New York and a professor of international relations at New York University, believes Dahlan would move "brutally to impose law and order in ways that might enhance his own political prospects."

Whoever assumes the job will be faced with the additional challenge of having to deal with the Islamists fundamentalist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who remain opposed to any peaceful solution to the current conflict and who are responsible for the continued suicide bombings. That, in itself, will require popular support, street smarts and a knowledge of how the security apparatus in the Palestinian Authority works. It will be a dangerous job that, if not properly tackled, could plunge the Palestinians into a brutal civil war. Regardless of who ends up replacing Arafat, his task will be truly colossal.

Israel's retaliatory raids on Palestinian Authority targets since the outbreak of the second intifada two years ago have left the Palestinian Authority virtually without infrastructure, stripping it any authority, or ability to operate. Police stations have been destroyed, as have most administration facilities. After two years of open guerrilla warfare, the Palestinian Authority is all but broke. Yet those are not insurmountable odds with U.S. political and financial backing, if the right man lands the job.

(Claude Salhani is a senior editor with United Press International in Washington who spent 15 years as a correspondent in the Middle East. Comments may be sent to [email protected].)