Rally in oil prices knows no quarter

NEW YORK, Dec. 5 (UPI) -- With few short-term factors standing in the way of bullish market sentiments, crude oil prices continued their steady march past $55 per barrel early Monday.

Crude oil prices are up more than 15 percent, or nearly $10 per barrel, from last week in response to a decision from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to hold production steady at around 32.5 million barrels per day starting in January.

The agreement is meant to pull a market tilted toward the supply side back into balance. A rush of oil from U.S. shale basins in part kept the markets flush with oil at the start of this year and pulled oil prices below the $30 per barrel mark.

A research note published by Morgan Stanley said there are few things standing in the way of a sustained rally for crude oil prices.

"Other than a complete deal collapse, we don't see many catalysts to reverse the recent rally," the report read.

The price for Brent crude oil continued its streak into early Monday trading, gaining 1 percent from the previous close to start the day at $55 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 0.9 percent to open in New York at $52.09 per barrel.

A best-case scenario for OPEC members may be a so-called Goldilocks value for oil, one that's not so low that it crimps economic growth for producers and not so high that it reinvigorates U.S. shale oil production.

Traders will be renewing their focus on rig counts to gauge the industry's response to the exponential rise in crude oil prices. Baker Hughes publishes weekly rig count activity and a report Friday will be the first that reflects activity since OPEC's agreement last week in Vienna.

The average U.S. rig count for October was up 35 from the previous month to 544.

According to Morgan Stanley, OPEC may have underestimated the response from U.S. shale oil producers to a higher price point. Already, some companies have grown resilient to lower oil prices as efficiencies improve.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in early November that it expected domestic oil production to decline from 8.8 million bpd this year to 8.7 million in 2017. The estimate for 2017 was outlined before OPEC's production agreement and was more than 100,000 bpd higher than the forecast from the previous month.