WASHINGTON, Nov. 16 (UPI) -- Three unusual events are scheduled to take place this week that could, if all proceeds according to plan, go a very long way to resolving the ugly tensions that have developed between the Bush administration and its European allies. But if they go wrong, then we might soon be writing the epilogue of the Atlantic Alliance, the organization that won the Cold War and achieved unprecedented prosperity for its members.
The first is well known, President George W. Bush's state visit to Britain, which may or may not become a public relations disaster with massed and angry demonstrations against him. Much depends on the skill and good sense of the British police and the readiness of all concerned -- particularly a global media attuned to scenes of action and mayhem -- to acknowledge that lively debate and vocal opposition are an essential component of the freedom that embodies the Atlantic Alliance.
The second is not just unknown; it has not yet been announced. But Britain's Finance Minister Gordon Brown will Monday unveil a new and highly ambitious proposal to create a single market between the United States and the European Union. In a speech to the Confederation of British Industry conference in Birmingham in the presence of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, Brown will propose a new U.S.-EU trade deal of no tariffs, no trade barriers, along with common standards on product safety and accounting.
In effect, Brown is proposing that governments act to formalize what private industry and multinational corporations have already very nearly achieved: the creation of one vast and single economy of the West that will account for about half of global production and world trade and over two-thirds of global investment capacity.
Sources close to Brown tell United Press International that he will announce "a major Transatlantic review on how we can move beyond the old trade disputes and reap the benefits of greater trade and investment liberalization."
Brown's aides have already estimated the deal would mean an instant boost of up to $200 billion in Transatlantic trade, raising Europe's sluggish rate of economic growth by up to 2 percent, and creating as many as 1 million jobs across Europe.
The first problem is that while Brown has obtained an agreement in principle from his fellow EU finance ministers to propose this review of U.S.-EU trade, Bush has yet to decide whether to end the nasty trade rows over his steel import tariffs and tax breaks for American exporters, both already declared violations of World Trade Organization rules.
The second problem is that this is not the first time the British have tried to bridge Transatlantic trade rows. In 1995, the then EU Trade Commissioner Sir Leon Brittain agreed in principle to a similar deal for a Transatlantic Free Trade Area with his American counterpart, (and personal friend) Mickey Kantor. In 1997, when much of the staff work had been done, the scheme was bluntly vetoed in the EU Council by France. And given France's recent diplomatic record, there is no guarantee this will not happen again.
The third unusual event taking place this week might just decide whether or not the French play this customary role of spoiler. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell will attend -- and this is a first -- a meeting of the EU Council in Brussels. He will lunch with the 15 EU foreign ministers and spend the afternoon negotiating tricky issues like Iraq, Iran and the American security demand for passenger details on Transatlantic fights that the EU says breaches its privacy rules.
The toughest issue, however, will be the EU's proposals for an autonomous defense and security system that threatens the tried and tested U.S.-dominated NATO alliance. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns warned that these plans for military independence were "the most significant threat to NATO's future."
Two months ago, France, Germany and Britain agreed a draft plan that said the EU "should be endowed with a joint capacity to plan and conduct operations without recourse to NATO resources and capabilities. Our goal remains to achieve such a planning and implementation capacity either in consensus with the 25 (member states) but also in a circle of interested partners."
We have been before. The Clinton administration agreed that the EU could and should have such an autonomous defense system (in the hope that this would encourage the Europeans to beef up their still feeble military capabilities) so long as this was "separable but not separate from NATO."
And now the same old issue is back, rooted in American nervousness that the EU could yet become a French-led Frankenstein monster that might come to challenge American strategic interests, and in French determination to build the EU into a global force that could counter-balance American dominance.
If Powell can resolve these security matters Tuesday, so that the French then allow Brown's bold trade plan to become a reality, Europeans and Americans will all be richer, safer and the world should become a more hopeful place -- whatever the probably ugly TV images of Bush's reception in Britain this week.
