LONDON, Aug. 3 (UPI) -- Civil war is a more likely outcome in Iraq than democracy, Britain's ambassador to Baghdad said in a confidential memo leaked to the media Thursday.
William Patey warned of the break-up of Iraq along sectarian lines in his final diplomatic telegram before leaving his post in the Iraqi capital last week.
He tempered his bleak assessment by saying that "the position is not hopeless" -- but predicted Iraq would remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years.
The memo, seen and reported by the BBC, was circulated to Prime Minister Tony Blair, Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, Defense Secretary Des Browne and House of Commons Leader Jack Straw, as well as senior military commanders in both Iraq and Britain.
Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq -- a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror -- must remain in doubt."
Referring to the Shia militias blamed for many sectarian killings, Patey added: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) from developing into a state within a state, as Hizbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."
Military sources said that British forces are planning to step up operations against Shia militia groups, and that it is now "make or break" time for the country.
The memo stresses that "the next six months are crucial," and urges the government to ensure that Iraqi forces are brought into the effort as British troops "can't confront the militias alone."
