WASHINGTON, July 19 (UPI) -- Israel would like to see the Lebanese army assume control of south Lebanon. To make that become a reality Israel is undertaking a massive and systematic bombing campaign of Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's positions, particularly in the south of the country and in Beirut's southern suburbs, traditional Hezbollah strongholds. But amidst the tonnage of bombs dropped by Israeli warplanes and fired by its heavy artillery over the past week, many innocent civilians are caught in the murderous crossfire, as is the case in all wars.
In retaliation to Israeli raids on Lebanon, Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets on Israeli cities and towns, including the port city of Haifa. This is the first time Hezbollah rockets have reached targets that far south from the Lebanese border.
But much as Israel would like to see the Lebanese military move into the country's south, and assume control of the frontier line separating the two countries, the reality is another matter altogether.
Why? Because nothing is ever that simple the Middle East.
"The reality of asking the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah," said a friend in North Carolina who has a good understanding of the intricacies of Levantine politics, "is like expecting the Arkansas National Guard to march to Ft. Bragg and demand the U.S. Army give up all of its weapons."
And while Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of the militant Shiite organization, Hezbollah, is considered a terrorist by the United States and by Israel, in Lebanon as in much of the Arab and the Islamic world, Nasrallah is seen as something of a hero for having played a fundamental role in forcing the Israeli army out of south Lebanon six years ago.
"I have given up trying to explain that Nasrallah is like a rock star compared to Osama bin Laden and Co.," said my good friend, who has a rare insight into the region's politics. "I have given up trying to explain the distinction between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Party of God (Hezbollah)," and that they are "part of the government" and "charitable organization as well," he went on.
One of the main reasons the Lebanese government has been reluctant in sending the army into the south to replace Hezbollah is due to the fear that the army would quickly fracture along sectarian lines and plunge the country back into civil war, the specter of which is never too far removed from the minds of Lebanese politicians and civilians.
Here's a brief apercu of how things work in Lebanon.
In Lebanon, the army comes under the command of the president of the Republic, a Maronite Christian. But in this case, the Maronite Christian president is Emile Lahoud and he takes his marching orders from Syria. Syria, does not want to see the Lebanese army replace Hezbollah in the south. Why? Because although the army is technically under the command of the president, and the president is known to answer to Syria, the Lebanese army is not pro-Syrian. And besides, the president would not have the authority to dispatch the army south without the approval of his government. And the current government includes a number of Hezbollah.
To complicate matters even further is the composition of most Lebanese army battalions. Rank and file tends to be for the most part Shiites, while the officer corps is of predominantly either Christian or Sunni Muslim.
Now imagine the following scenario, where a Lebanese army battalion is ordered into an area in south Lebanon under the control of Hezbollah. They are given the order to eject Hezbollah. Among the 800 men in the Lebanese army battalion let's assume that a good 600 to 700 are Shiites. Chances are, that a good percentage of those would probably have close family ties to the guerrilla fighters. What are the chances of the rank and file following an order from Christian officers to open fire on their relatives?
Or what about a United Nations peacekeeping force?
Well, that too was tried in 1978 following the first Israeli invasion of south Lebanon. A U.N. force comprising soldiers from more than a dozen countries came together under the banner of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon -- UNIFIL. They arrived with a six month mandate. Twenty-eight years later UNIFIL is still in south Lebanon. While they did help the local population in some aspects of everyday life, their major raison d'etre -- that of stopping Israel incursions into Lebanese territory as well as preventing terrorist attacks against Israel has been most unsuccessful.
UNIFIL has been unable to prevent two Israeli invasions of Lebanon just as they have been unable to prevent hundreds of rockets being targeted against the Jewish state, first by the Palestinians and now by Hezbollah fighters.
So Israel will continue to bomb the Beirut suburbs, the south, the north, the center and downtown, and everything else they can until they break the back of Hezbollah. The great difference between the 1982 invasion to oust the Palestinians and today's war against Hezbollah, is that the Palestinians were foreigners and therefore could be expelled. Hezbollah on the other hand are Lebanese citizens. Expelling them is not an option.
--
(Comments may be sent to [email protected])
