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Analysis: Israeli-Palestinian clashes wane

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Israel Correspondent

JERUSALEM, June 15 (UPI) -- Israeli-Palestinian fighting along the Gaza Strip's border subsided somewhat as the Palestinian president and government sought a cease-fire and Israel stopped its strikes.

Palestinian militants Thursday fired 10 Qassam rockets of which seven made it across the border, hitting the town Sderot where Defense Minister Amir Peretz lives. On Wednesday a rocket hit Ashkelon's industrial zone.

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The blasts scared residents and damaged a factory but the attacks are less intense than the recent average of almost 30 rockets a day. Militant group Islamic Jihad, which has all along opposed the Tahdiyah (cease-fire) with Israel, assumed responsibility for the strikes.

The Israelis who engaged in targeted air attacks, artillery shelling and some naval bombardments that killed militants and innocent civilians have been holding their fire in recent days.

It appeared as though the two sides realized it was in their interest to stop fighting and the Egyptians were around to help arrange a limited cease-fire.

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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas asked for the cease-fire on Saturday when he spoke on the phone to Peretz. Abbas apparently reiterated his position Tuesday evening when he met two Egyptian major generals posted in Gaza.

Jibril Rajoub, a former head of the Preventive Security, Wednesday publicly called for a cease-fire.

"I am sure you'll get a positive response from the other side. Everything will stop... There will be a positive response," he told Israel Radio.

Thursday, the government's spokesman Ghazi Hamad raised the issue. He said he had been speaking "all day" to Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh who "said explicitly, (that) we want quiet everywhere. We want a cease-fire everywhere."

"We want to stop all activities providing the Israeli side is ready to stop all its activities in Gaza and the (West) Bank... We've sent message after message... We, as the government, are willing to talk to all the factions in Gaza to stop the rocket (attacks) to stop all the activities," he offered.

The Israeli defense minister's office did not comment, but seemed to bank on a policy of deterrence.

"If the (militant) organizations will continue to operate, we have a prepared plan of action," Peretz told the Knesset.

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According to the Haaretz newspaper the head of the Shabak security service, Yuval Diskin, told one of Abbas' advisers that Israel would target Hamas leaders if rocket attacks continue.

Israel boycotts the Hamas government and relays messages through Abbas' men, a senior Foreign Ministry official confirmed.

Peretz said he has "Made it clear to everybody... that (our) restraint was a limited time out. (This message) was relayed perhaps in the fastest way to the highest echelons."

Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip, unconditionally, last September but failed to stop subsequent cross-border Palestinian rocket attacks.

"Our civilian population are ducks in a terrorist shooting gallery," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev complained.

Those attacks put the government in an awkward position. No Israelis were killed since the withdrawal but it was partly a matter of luck. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wants to withdraw from parts of the West Bank -- unilaterally if an agreement proves untenable -- and must convince his people to support such a move.

It is an uphill battle and the fighting near Gaza hinders him. Fifty-six percent of the respondents in a public opinion poll published last Friday in Haaretz opposed Olmert's "realignment" plan, 37 percent supported it and seven percent had no opinion.

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Some 600 rockets have been fired from Gaza since the withdrawal, according to a source in the Southern Command. That seems to be a flashing red light warning of what may happen to major Israeli cities near the West Bank in case of a similar pullback.

Violence, then, does not serve the Israeli government's cause.

Nor does it help President Abbas, who has been campaigning for years to end hostilities and negotiate with Israel.

On Saturday, Abbas risked his political future by calling for a referendum that would, for example, give him a mandate to negotiate with israel. Hamas opposes the referendum and the dispute became one of the issues in the power struggle between Abbas, of the nationalist Fatah party, and the radical Islamic Hamas government.

The clashes with Israel weaken Abbas. Violence has often increased Palestinian fury against Israel and reduced readiness for negotiations.

A series of public opinion polls conducted by Near East Consulting showed support for the plan Abbas wants approved dropped 17 percent in one week. Sunday, when the last poll was taken, Abbas was still ahead with 59 percent support but was gradually losing ground. Almost half of those who changed their minds in the previous week said it was "a result of the recent Israeli attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip," the pollsters reported.

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So Abbas too, could benefit from some quiet.

According to Israeli intelligence, Hamas militants were behind some of the rocket attacks that preceded the recent escalation.

Haaretz reported that Prime Minister Haniyeh asked the head of the military arm, Ahmad al-Jaabari, to stop the fire, but Jaabari said: "I don't take orders from you."

Eventually he stopped the shooting, perhaps after getting orders from the head of Hamas' politburo, Khaled Mashal, who is in Damascus.

Bir Zeit University Political Science professor, Helga Baumgarten, told United Press International that Hamas' "overriding interest" is to "really get a chance and demonstrate they can put up a better government than Fatah" had done since 1994.

For that they need quiet and international aid with which to meet their domestic bills.

Hamas so far has not accepted the demands of the Quartet -- the United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- to renounce terror, recognize Israel, undertake to respect past agreements with it and accept the road map for peace.

Baumgarten predicted Hamas will come round, "the moment there is a clear indication from Israel they they mean business with the end of the occupation."

Hamad indicated as much in the radio interview. "We have no problem with having quiet, peace... Today we are talking of a Palestinian state within the 1967 boundaries... You must understand, we are talking of a political solution," he said.

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