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Analysis: Hariri slay probe progress

By WILLIAM M. REILLY, UPI U.N. Correspondent

UNITED NATIONS, June 12 (UPI) -- The latest on the International Independent Investigation Commission inquiry into the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others in Beirut says it was caused by a single above-ground "very large improvised explosive device."

This information is important because of conflicting reports received after the Feb. 14, 2005, blast that destroyed the Hariri convoy as it passed since exact times of the attack conflict, there were reports of two blasts and road works near or at the site suggesting the possibility of perhaps an underground explosion.

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"Examining and establishing these fundamental aspects of the crime, systematically and conclusively, is essential to facilitate further progress in the investigation and are required to satisfy the evidential standards of a future judicial process," the report said.

In other words, evidence that will stand up in court.

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The U.N. Security Council set up UNIIIC after an earlier U.N. mission found Lebanon's own investigation seriously flawed and Syria primarily responsible for the political tension preceding Hariri's murder. It said Lebanon and Syria intelligence had to know of planning for the attack.

The latest inquiry is headed by Serge Brammertz, who requested a 12-month extension of the panel's mandate in his report.

Annan said in a letter accompanying the report, it details progress made by the commission since March, in investigating the killing of Hariri and in providing technical assistance to the Lebanese authorities in their investigation of the 14 other cases.

"In particular the report highlights the considerable progress made in consolidating the commission's investigative capacity and organizational structure; in developing its investigative activities and in adapting its internal procedures to the standards and requirements of a future judicial process, possibly a tribunal of an international character," he said.

The blast "was caused by a very large IED, containing a minimum of 2,600 pounds of TNT or the equivalent and comprising a mix of TNT, Pentaerythritol tetra-nitrate and/or RDX plastic explosive," the report said.

The explosive PETN was described by globalsecurity.org as "Pentaerythritol tetra-nitrate ... used as a priming composition in detonators, a base charge in blasting caps, and a core load for detonating fuse ... very much used in detonating cord of which it is the explosive core and ... also detonates sympathetically with the detonation of an adjacent high explosive."

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The second ingredient, RDX, the site described as standing for "Royal Demolition eXplosive." It called RDX "the most important military high explosive in the United States" technically know as Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine, "second in strength to nitroglycerin among common explosive substances."

It was also decided the device was planted in a parked, Japanese, made van.

The top investigator said, "Having knowledge of the number of explosions and the exact location of the IED at the moment of explosion facilitates a better understanding of the planning and execution of the crime; the nature and composition of the perpetrating team; the skills and coordination required; the time spent to plan the attack; the period during which the decision to kill Rafik Hariri was taken; and, the extent of involvement, potential advance knowledge, or complicity of other individuals."

Brammertz explained in the report why the findings are important for extension of the investigation not only into the Hariri assassination, but also the 14 other apparently political assassinations in Lebanon recently. "Progress has been made by carrying out several comparative analyses.

"By comparing the modus operandi and possible motives of each case a working hypothesis has been developed that groups the cases into two clusters of eight explosions in public locations and six attacks directly targeting specific individuals," the report said.

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It gave no further details on the hypothesis.

"This comparison will facilitate conclusions concerning the nature of the perpetrators and enable the identification of possible linkages with the Hariri case," Brammertz said in the report.

"It has also become apparent that only a concerted effort to boost the resources and capacity of the Lebanese judicial and law enforcement authorities, and possibly a more pro-active role for the commission in the investigation of the 14 cases, will ultimately lead to any tangible progress in the development of these cases."

Annan welcomed the partnership that has developed with the Lebanese judicial and law enforcement agencies.

"I share the view expressed by Brammertz and the Lebanese government that the commission should be provided with stability and predictability in its mandate and resources," the secretary-general said.

The commission said it anticipates the main projects relating to the Hariri assassination will have been completed.

"At present fundamental building blocks for the investigation into the crime, particular concerning the explosion, the container/carrier, and the means of delivery are largely understood and provide the basis for investigative progress with regard to those who perpetrated the crime."

Evidence from forensic exploitation of the crime scene, the report said, is expected to further bolster or exclude "some of the existing case hypotheses."

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