WASHINGTON, Jan. 22 (UPI) -- Venezuela's economy will decline more than any other in the region as a result of the drop in oil prices, analysis from the International Monetary Fund found.
The Central Bank of Venezuela in December said the collapse in oil prices was in part to blame for a 2.3 percent drop in third quarter gross domestic product. That marked three straight quarters of decline for the member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a formal slip into recession.
Oil prices have dropped more than half since June and are down 20 percent since the Central Bank's announcement.
Alejandro Werner, director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere division, said declining oil prices means a sharp economic downturn for Caracas.
"Venezuela's economy will take the largest hit [from slumping oil prices, and is now forecast to contract by 7 percent in 2015," he said in a Wednesday statement. "Indeed, each $10 decline in oil prices worsens Venezuela's trade balance by 3.5 percent of GDP, a bigger effect by far than for any other country in the region."
High inflation in the country is eroding consumer purchasing power. The Central Bank said the inflation rate during the fourth quarter was around 63 percent. Oil exports for 2014, meanwhile, were down 4 percent, creating further damage to the Venezuelan economy.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is backing reforms in the foreign exchange system in an effort to prop up the nation's economy. Werner said that, regionally, the impact of low oil prices will be mixed.
"The biggest beneficiaries are countries with high oil import bills, notably in Central America and the Caribbean," he said. "However, some caution is warranted, as several of these countries have been relying on subsidized oil deliveries from Venezuela."
