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Rick Snyder, Michigan's new governor, recently pulled off an interesting trick: He gave a State of the State address without mentioning automobiles. For President Barack Obama in his Tuesday night State of the Union address, he would have to talk for an hour without mentioning the economy to pull off a similar stunt. He is unlikely to do that.
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The president, however, has some extremely dicey ground to cover in discussing the state of the U.S. economy, in part, because the promising recovery of a year ago sputtered badly by midsummer before gathering steam again and, in part, because every day is one closer to some kind of national reckoning with overspending. Republicans are nipping at his heels, hoping to maintain their image as the party most serious about government debt. Obama, meanwhile, is likely to continue the tack most politicians prefer, including Republicans: declaring debt a national priority then endorse steps to postpone doing much about it. The voters out there in the audience watching the speech from the nation's living rooms are interested in jobs, pure and simple. Whatever Obama has up his sleeves to support job creation will be the part where the president declares he will do something "next week" or "tomorrow."
Debt can be conveniently "studied" or "we're working on it." Jobs is where he will haul out a starter pistol from behind the podium and say he is ready to act.
Hopefully, there will be clues to Obama's willingness to accept pro-business policies, such as his executive order last week to have federal agencies search high and low for regulations that get in the way of job creation. That must have pleased a few cynics who believe almost everything Washington does gets in the way of job creation.
The president will likely hold up progress made on a trade agreement with South Korea as a breakthrough that will help meet last year's stated goal of doubling exports within five years. He could also point to increased exports to China, at which point his next sentence will be critical. He could toss up a softball: "We should do more" to push China or something harder, like, "We will do more." President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington proved, "We have lost our direction regarding China," but the president is unlikely to say that.
Many economists say the economy is now jogging through sand, making some progress in a difficult environment. With overbearing regulations, government debt in Europe and slow job creation.
"It's really a muddle-through economy," David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff & Associates, told The New York Times.
On the other hand, this is no time for mumbling. In the speech, which is viewed as a combination reality check and pep talk, Obama will be fishing around for success stories to talk about. In that case, he should probably mention automobiles.
In international markets Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.15 percent while the Shanghai composite index in China lost 0.68 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was flat, falling 0.05 percent, while the Sensex in India dropped 0.95 percent.
The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.46 percent.
In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index in Britain shed 0.4 percent while the DAX 30 in Germany added 0.21 percent. The CAC 40 in France fell slightly, dropping 0.08 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.37 percent.
