Bank of Canada warns of euro recession

Oct. 25, 2011 at 10:34 AM
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OTTAWA, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- The Bank of Canada held its central rate at 1 percent Tuesday and said it anticipates a brief European recession in coming months.

In its report from Ottawa, the Canadian central bank noted the "global economy has slowed markedly" in recent months.

The bank now expects that the euro area -- where these dynamics are most acute -- will experience a brief recession," the statement said. "The bank's base-case scenario assumes that the euro-area crisis will be contained, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks."

As for Canada's largest trading partner, the United States, the bank forecast at least six more months of "weak real growth in Gross National Product" before the U.S. economy begins to strengthen gradually.

The forecast for Canada was similar.

"The bank expects that growth in Canada will be slow through mid-2012 before picking up as the global economic environment improves, uncertainty dissipates and confidence increases," the report said. "The bank projects that the (Canadian) economy will expand by 2.1 percent in 2011, 1.9 percent in 2012, and 2.9 percent in 2013."

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