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Analysis: World holds breath as U.S. votes

By CLAUDE SALHANI

WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 (UPI) -- "George Bush'sunpopularity around the world is unequalled in the history of the United States. Never has the outcome of an American presidential election been so impatiently anticipated around the world, and never have so many people wished that voters 'oust the incumbent from the White House,' to such a degree." These words were printed in Tuesday's edition of Le Monde, the influential Parisian daily newspaper, as American voters headed to the polls in unprecedented numbers.

With this latest anti-Bush rant, the Paris newspaper has come a long way from the historic headline it ran a day after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on Manhattan and the Pentagon, when it headlined the now famous banner, "We are all Americans."

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What a difference an administration and three years make. Le Monde says it is only echoing, with the exception of some rare countries, the feeling Bush generates across much of Europe. The paper says the European anti-Bush sentiment is based on several polls conducted before the Nov. 2 elections.

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This worldwide resentment of Bush is tied to the "Iraqi quagmire." His re-election, Le Monde goes on to say, is seen as only likely to aggravate the danger level around the world.

Indeed, the newspaper reflects the sentiments of many Europeans -- and of many others around the globe. The general feeling across the Atlantic and beyond is that by launching the war on Iraq, Bush unleashed new demons that have become impossible to entice back into the bottle. In so doing, they say, Bush has made the world a far more unstable, and far more unsafe place in which to live.

In polls carried out across Europe and the Middle East over the past year, Bush is often portrayed as "a dangerous Cowboy," and some deem him more dangerous than al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

To be sure Bush still commands many prominent allies in Europe -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi still stand with him, as does the Polish government; all these countries have contributed troops to Iraq. However, the Blair government faces stiff opposition from the British public because of his unfaltering support of Bush in the war in Iraq. The saving grace for Blair is British troops have so far served in the more quiet southern part of the country where the insurgency has not been as active as in the Sunni triangle, where the U.S. military has suffered most of its casualties. That may yet change as a unit of British troops has redeployed further north at the request of the United States.

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Most Europeans hoped a victory by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., would have paved the way toward better relations. Kerry, many Europeans say, has a distinct advantage over Bush given his sincere desire to initiate what Le Monde calls "a trans-Atlantic dialogue."

But even a Kerry victory comes with its setbacks for some European leaders. The great fear, particularly from France and Germany, is Kerry would turn to them for military assistance in Iraq, a position they would find very uncomfortable. Even in the highly unlikely event the French and German governments acquiesced to a U.S. request to contribute troops, popular opposition would be so high Paris and Berlin would have a difficult time ignoring it.

Given the growing unrest and rising insurgency, as well as the mounting death tolls in Iraq, the last thing the French and German governments want is to commit their forces to the Iraq imbroglio. After having opposed the invasion in the first place, a Kerry defeat will allow Europe's politicians to breathe a secret sigh of relief, and they will now be able to sit backand watch Bush stew in his own juices, with no visible or viable exit strategy in Iraq anywhere on the horizon.

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Bush's unpopularity does not stop in Europe. Qian Qichen, a former Chinese minister of foreign affairs, published a opinion paper last Monday in which he stated, "The war in Iraq has made the United States even more unpopular than the war in Vietnam."

The president, needless to say, will have his hands full during the next 4 years.

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