PARIS, Sept. 20, 1992 (UPI) -- French voters appeared to narrowly approve the Maastricht Treaty on European unity Sunday, expressing cautious confidence in the 40-year-old dream of creating an economically and politically unified Europe.
French Interior Minister Paul Quiles, while not citing specific figures, said it appeared the treaty had been approved by the French people.
Early reliable projections by three independent polling agencies gave the ''yes'' vote between 51 percent and 51.5 percent of the vote, with 48.5-49 percent against. Official figures were expected later Sunday.
''The victory of the 'yes' vote is the proof that the president of the republic was right in deciding to directly consult the French people,'' Quiles said. ''One can say that today the French people had a rendezvous with history.''
The French ''oui'' practically assures the controversial document -- which calls for the creation of a single currency and brings the 12- member European Community closer to the establishment of a common foreign and defense policy -- will be ratified by the six countries of the EC that have yet to do so.
The French vote, coming 3 months after the treaty's rejection by Danish voters, sent sighs of relief throughout European capitals.
However, the strength of the treaty's opposition was a reminder that millions of Europeans are unhappy or uncertain about the move toward creation of an economically and politically united continent -- at least in the form outlined by the Maastricht Treaty.
The treaty still faces approval in six of the 12 EC member countries, with Denmark the main stumbling block as the only nation to have rejected the pact. But Danish leaders have said the decision may not be irreversible, saying they may organize a new referendum in the first half of 1993.
If approved by the remaining six countries, the Maastricht Treaty will come into effect at the earliest on Jan. 1, 1993, or on the first day of the month following its approval by the last member state.
In Washington, President Bush said he would defer comment until the results were more firm, but said, ''As you know, I favor an integrated Europe.''
Bush was to meet Sunday evening with leaders of the International Monetary Fund and representatives of fellow industrialized nations to discuss the recent currency crisis in Europe.
One of the first effects of the French vote was likely to be the restoration of a relative calm to skittish financial markets following last week's monetary exchange crisis, that saw the withdrawal of the British pound and Italian lira from the European monetary exchange mechanism.
Most financial analysts had predicted a French ''no'' vote would have led to panic Monday on the continent's stock and money markets.
Leading European politicans reacted with caution to the result, with supporters of the treaty saying the strength of the opposition indicated the new Europe must be more democratic and closer to the average citizen.
''I drew a huge sigh of relief,'' remarked Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. ''I am aware that we have many obstacles ahead of us. But if we had not overcome today's obstacle, if the French electorate had not voted 'yes,' the work of 40 years probably would have crashed into pieces, with irreparable damage.''
But Maastricht opponents insisted they had made their point forcefully and said European leaders would have to pay closer attention to public opinion in the future.
''The Maastricht Treaty may have a yellow light, but certainly not a green light,'' said former French Defense Minister Jean-Pierre Chevenement, a strong treaty opponent. ''In the renegotiation that is inevitable in order to take account of the Danish 'no,' it will be necessary to also take the French 'no' into account.''
The French ratification of Maastricht came less than four months before the establishment of a barrier-free trade zone of 350 million people among the 12 EC members and seven industrially developed Nordic countries who hope to join the Community in the coming years.
The vote also appeared to give President Francois Mitterrand of France and other major European leaders, including German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, some badly needed breathing space as they deal with popular discontent and sluggish economies at home.
Other heads of government, including British Prime Minister John Major and Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez, are also likely to see their political base strengthened. In Britain, however, the narrowness of the vote is likely to make the tough ratification battle in Parliament even more difficult, analysts said.
One of the major beneficiaries of the French ratification is without doubt Kohl, who had staked his prestige on approval of the treaty. The German chancellor even appeared on a French television program with Mitterrand to calm French fears that the Europe of Maastricht would in fact be the Europe of Germany.
''If this result is confirmed, it would show that the European train is still going,'' German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel said in the first reaction to the French vote by a German government official.
For Mitterrand, the embattled French president who revealed last week that he was suffering from prostate cancer, the results are likely to ease pressure for his resignation. Mitterrand insisted all summer he would not leave office before the end of his second seven-year term in 1995.
But earlier this month he slightly modified his position and said if the treaty were rejected, he would give himself 24 hours to reflect on his next move.
The campaign for the referendum was the most intense since the 1981 presidential election that saw the Socialist Party come to power for the first time since World War II.
The French, who had turned away from their traditional interest in politics in recent years and had accepted the construction of a united Europe as a given, debated the treaty passionately and seriously.
Books about Maastricht and Europe became best-sellers, conversations in cafes and private homes revolved around the complex issues raised by the document, and television debates attracted millions of viewers well into the night.
The proposed creation of a single currency and an independent central bank to manage it were at the center of the French campaign, with opponents of the idea insisting forcefully that such a step was tantamount to the loss of national sovereignty.
The crisis in European exchange markets last week, which resulted in the at least temporary withdrawal of the British pound and the Italian lira from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, was seized upon by both supporters and opponents of the proposed central bank.
Those who supported the treaty argued such a situation would have been impossible if the single currency system had been in effect because only one currency, the strongest in the world, they argued, would have been in effect.
But opponents retorted the divergence between the economies of the 12 EC countries was so great that only a few countries will ever be able to meet the strict, macro-economic standards necessary to join the single currency.
But the sharpest criticism was reserved for the proposed central bank, whose total independence from political influence was the key condition set by Germany in exchange for giving up the Deutsche mark.
Opponents argued the bank's governors will be overly concerned with controlling inflation and maintaining price stability at the expense of social policy, leading to even higher levels of unemployment and a widening gap between rich and poor.
The second major theme of the campaign concerned Germany's probable new role in the new Europe. The campaign brought out latent anti-German feelings still harbored by many French people since World War II, despite four decades of bridge building between the two countries.
Treaty proponents argued it was necessary to contain Germany, while opponents said the establishment of an independent central bank to manage the common currency would in fact make Europe a huge German mark zone. The recent anti-foreigner riots in Rostock and other cities in eastern Germany added to the profound German-phobia in France.
Even the Bundesbank's decision last week to lower interest rates in exchange for a 7 percent devaluation of the lira and its support of the franc Friday when it came under attack did little to dispel the fear that the Europe of Maastricht would in fact be the Europe of Germany.
