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The Cold War replaced by Third World Hot Wars

By JIM ANDERSON

WASHINGTON -- The U.S.-Soviet joint declaration on Iraq's invasion of Kuwait is part of a pattern of increasing superpower cooperation to contain regional conflicts.

The cooperation is a recognition that the Cold War may have ended, but that truce does not affect the cluster of brush-fire wars, which have the danger of poisoning the super-power relationship.

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Ironically, the collaboration comes at a time when both the United States and the Soviet Union have independently reached the conclusion that their ability to control events outside their borders is limited and sometimes non-existent.

The pattern became apparent more than two years ago when the Soviets decided to cut their continuing losses in Afghanistan and withdraw their forces, removing an irritant in Moscow-Washington relations.

Both the United States and the Soviet Union continue to supply military equipment to their clients in the long Afghan war, but Moscow and Washington decided -- each for its own reasons -- to expand that spirit of cooperation and clear some of the smoldering struggles off the world map before they became explosive.

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Some examples cited by State Department officials:

--Central America. At U.S. urging, the Soviets cut off all their arms supplies to the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, and persuaded the Marxist-led government to accept internationally monitored elections. With the knowledge that the Soviet support to Nicaragua, which once reached $1 billion a year, the Sandinistas accepted the inevitable and moved to end the war. The United States put similar pressures on the U.S.-backed Contras.

--Central Europe. Both the Soviet Union and the United States agreed to cooperate in the German reunification talks, making certain that it will not be so sudden and unpredictable that it would upset the stability of Europe. The Soviets made the key concession, at American urging, to permit a united Germany to remain within NATO.

--Southern Africa. Both sides have quietly put pressure on their clients in Namibia, Angola and Mozambique to work for a settlement in the long series of wars in those countries. Namibia, as a result of that quiet pressure, is now at peace, and an independent state. There are signs that the wars in Mozambique and Angola may be winding down.

--East Africa. The two superpowers have worked together to put together a food lift for refugees in Ethiopia and Sudan, where an estimated 5 million people are at risk of starvation. The division of labor is roughly this: the United States and the European Community supply the food and the Soviets supply the aircraft which bring the food supplies from the ports to the isolated refugee camps.

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--Southeast Asia. The two powers have agreed that they will cooperate to prevent the murderous Khmer Rouge faction from taking over the government. The key change was made by the United States, which agreed to set up a dialogue with Vietnam, as a means of creating pressure on the Khmer Rouge to accept a settlement in which they would be excluded from power.

U.S. officials point out that the new Soviet cooperation does not necessarily rise from some new-found commitment to peace and democracy in Moscow.

It is founded on something far more realistic: a Soviet inability to pay the price that is required of an interventionist world power. In toting up the costs, the Soviets have signalled Cuba that the current $5 billion in annual subsidies from the Soviet Union will have to be cut. Cuba is preparing for an economic crisis.

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