SAN JOSE, Calif. -- A scientist with an unusual method of forecasting earthquakes predicted last week's deadly temblor, but may lose his job for 'creating fear in the public' by predicting more.
Jim Berkland, a geologist for Santa Clara County, was on indefinite administrative leave on orders from irate County Executive Sally Reed.
Berkland, 59, who calculates the number of runaway dogs and cats and the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon to forecast earthquakes, predicted in a story printed in the Oct. 13 edition of the Gilroy Dispatch that there would be a large shaker between Oct. 14-21 with a magnitude of 3.5 to 6.0 on the Richter scale.
The Oct. 17 earthquake that killed at least 63 people in an area stretching from Monterey to San Francisco fell in the middle of Berkland's forecast 'window.'
But the geologist's employment troubles did not begin until at least two other newspaper stories said he also predicted earthquakes measuring 7.0 will occur in November and again in December.
Reed accused Berkland of 'creating fear in the public' with his predictions. Tuesday, she ordered him to take administrative leave, saying Berkland has been unable to separate his 'hobby' of predicting earthquakes from his day-to-day work as county geologist.
The county executive said she was worried that Berkland's job with the county may somehow give his predictions legitimacy or implied county endorsement.
Berkland accepted the paid administrative leave but was unrepentant. The newspapers quoted him incorrectly, Berkland said Wednesday, noting that he actually predicted a temblor ranging from 3.5 to 5.5 on the Richter scale for Nov. 10-17 -- not in the magnitude zone of 7.0. A quake of 3.5 to 5.5 magnitude will also occur between Dec. 11-18, he predicted.
'The quakes will be within 70 miles of San Jose and will not have aftershocks,' Berkland added.
In fact, he said, he had first predicted the devestating Oct. 17 quake would measure about 5.0. 'But when record numbers of dogs and cats began running away, I called the (Gilroy) newspaper and said there was an 85 percent probability that there would be a 6.5 or larger quake during the World Series,' Berkland said.
'The last thing I want to do is create public panic, and I'll do everything I can to allay that fear,' Berkland said. 'But as a scientist I have to pursue my scientific findings.'
Berkland said he explained his methods and predictions to Leode Franklin, head of the county Planning Department, who was preparing a report on his activities for submission to the county board of supervisors.
'I suspect they will do business as usual,' the geologist added. 'They'll form a committee and then wait and see which way the winds blow. I know there is not a county earthquake forecaster, but maybe some day there will be such a position.'
Stephen Kirby, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist in Menlo Park, Calif., who has been studying earthquakes for 21 years, said Berkland's techniques of predicting earthquake 'windows' based on the graviational pull of the sun and moon and number of lost cat and dog ads in newspaper classified sections has been shown to be no more reliable than random guessing.
Kirby was also critical of news reporters who publicize Berkland's predictions.
