WASHINGTON -- U.S. experts on Soviet affairs forecast Friday a quick decision on who will succeed Yuri Andropov -- an older man who would serve as an interim figurehead or a younger contender with a chance for long-term leadership.
Grigori Romanov, 60, a Politburo member since 1976, and Mikhail Gorbachev, 52, who became a full member of the prestigious group in 1980, are considered major contenders to be the fifth supreme leader of the Soviet Union.
Another strong candidate, if the Andropov-KGB connection is followed again, is Geidar Alyev, 60. He was first secretary of Azerbaijan, where he cracked down on corruption, and rose rapidly under Andropov to first deputy chairman of the council of ministers.
Andropov accelerated the advancement of the three men, but their relative youth and inexperience on the national and international scene handicap their efforts to succeed to the top post in the Kremlin.
In a country in which attention is paid to seniority and government change is glacial, the elders may give themselves and the party more time to adjust to the inevitable generational change.
Scholars said this thinking improves the chances of Konstantin Chernenko, 72, a top deputy to Leonid Brezhnev but who lost out to the ambitious Andropov in November 1982 when Brezhnev died.
The scholars said Chernenko's chances improved substantially by being named to the high visibility post of director of arrangements for Andropov's state funeral on Tuesday.
Soviet sources say Chernenko has served as the intermediary between the Politburo and Andropov during the leader's illness.
The contenders have had months to prepare for the succession because of Andropov's degenerative illness.
'The struggle may be over,' a government Soviet specialist said.
There have been several recent signs favorable to Chernenko. He ranked behind Andropov in voting for honorary nominations to the Supreme Soviet -- a symbol of status that is centrally planned.
And the third edition of Chernenko's collected speeches was favorably reviewed by Pravda.
'The fact he is 73 would make him an interim leader,' the specialist said. 'He knows his time would be limited.
'The elders see the young leaders and young blood as threats to them. Therefore, they can rally behind one of the elders -- one who has been disciplined by being an also-ran in 1982, but is one of them.'
He said the chairman of the funeral commission would 'be the favorite to succeed.'
Dr. Robin Remington, a Soviet scholar for the Masschusetts Institute of Technology, handicapped Romanov and Gorbachev by their lack of seasoning and favored the chances of the silver-haired Chernenko or Marshal Dmitri Ustinov, 75.
'Ustinov, is a serious possibility but you don't want a military man as your No. 1 political leader,' Remington said. 'But whoever is selected must be satisfactory from Ustinov's point of view.'
Dr. William Conyngham, a Soviet scholar at the Catholic University of Washington, D.C., said if the established leaders want continuity, the candidates are Chernenko and Ustinov.
'In all probability they would look at Chernenko,' he said. 'He would be an interim figure.'
Raymond Garthoff of the Brookings Institution and a former ambassador to Bulgaria, favored Romanov among the younger candidates. He is thought to be more conservative than Gorbachev, who made his reputation as an innovator in agriculture.
'A key is who has the prominent role of directing funeral arrangements,' Garthoff said. 'But the maneuver for power may go on so time.'
Bruce Parrott of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies said the decision may pivot on the Politburo willingness to pick a leader who will be in power for more than a decade.
'They may be tired of having incapacity in their leaders and want someone to regain the initiative for the country,' Parrott said.
