NEW YORK -- If you want to get the real lowdown on the direction of the stock market in 1982, tune in Jan. 24 to the Super Bowl. The outcome could determine a winning or losing year.
At least that's been the record of the 'Stovall Super Bowl Predictor,' the brainchild of Robert Stovall, Dean Witter Reynolds senior vice president. And it's worked in 14 of the 15 game years so far.
Here's the theory:
In the 15 super bowls played since the first one in 1967, whenever the old National Football League team now in the American Football Conference -- such as Pittsburgh or Baltimore -- won, that year's Standard & Poor's 500-stock index went up.
'That positive event occurred nine times: 1967, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1978, 1979 and 1980,' Stovall said.
'Conversely, when one of the original 10 AFL teams won -- as was the case five times: 1969, 1973, 1974, 1977 and 1981 -- the S&P 500 declined that year.
'The sole exception in this series was in 1970, when Kansas City (an original AFL team) won and the S&P 500 went up 0.1 percent. According to this Super Bowl Market predictor theory, the S&P 500 should have declined that year.'
Few other forecasts miss by such a small amount.
In January, 1981, the Oakland Raiders, an original AFL team, defeated the NFC's Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XV. For whatever reasons, the stock market subsequently had a down year as the Super Bowl Predictor indicated.
'There was no market tension in 1979 or 1980,' Stovall said, 'as both contestants each year (Pittsburgh-Dallas in 1979 and Pittsburgh-Los Angeles in 1980) had their roots in the old NFL. Subsequently, the S&P 500 had strong performances following both Super Bowls XIII and XIV.'
What lies ahead for 1982?
As of New Year's Day, eight teams still were in contention for Super Bowl XVI. Three of the NFC teams are from the old NFL: The Dallas Cowboys, New York-New Jersey Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a NFC expansion team. The other four -- Buffalo, Cincinnati, Miami and San Diego -- are AFC teams.
'The Showdown occurs on Jan. 24 in the Pontiac Silverdome and will be carried by CBS,' Stovall said. ' The NFC team will be in the white jerseys. If they have the chance, stock market bulls will want to root for the 49ers, Giants or Cowboys. This might not make any more sense to you than to me, but when a forecast is correct 14 of 15 times, it is bound to attract some attention.'
