DETROIT -- The auto industry is planning a midwinter marketing blitz built around new model introductions in hopes of cashing in on a major sales recovery forecast for 1982, a trade publication reported Thursday.
Ward's Auto World magazine said industry leaders generally believe the recovery forecast by many analysts, combined with the 10 percent personal income tax cut on July 1, will unleash consumer demand for new cars next year.
In its January issue, the publication said the selling rate for new cars by the end of 1982 is expected to be one-third higher than the current depressed levels -- if the economists are correct in their predictions.
Ward's said the concensus among the industry's own economists is that the sales rate will rise throughout the year, building from the 1981 fourth quarter's rock bottom 7.5 million units to more than 10 million for the final three months of 1982, a 40 percent surge.
The sales rate is based on what yearly sales would total if they proceeded at the current pace over a given period of time.
'Consumer confidence and disposable income should rise at the same time,' Donald P. Hilty, corporate economist for Chrysler Corp. told the magazine. 'When that happens, we think people will get back out into the marketplace.'
Only a modest increase, however, is expected for the overall year when compared with 1981's 11-year low for the industry as a whole, Ward's said. The estimated 8.5 million sales total this year included only about 6.2 million U.S-made cars -- the worst for the domestic industry in 20 years.
Sales forecasts for 1982 range from about 8.8 million units to just under 10 million. Imports, which accounted for about 27 percent of the 1981 total, will drop to about 25 percent next year as rising sales volume gives added effect to Japanese export quotes, Ward's said.
Before the long-term upturn ends, analysts told the magazine, annual sales probably will match the record of 11.3 million new cars in 1978.
'The recovery could carry all the way into 1985,' said John W. Deaver, Ford Motor Co.'s economics manager. 'We could exceed sales of 11 million units in a couple of those years.'
Ward's said an increasing number of people reaching the car-buying age group is expected to lead the 1982 sales surge.
'When you weigh those kinds of factors against the increase in real disposable income that we see occurring, it's clear that car sales must increase,' said Colin J. Loxley of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates.
