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Analysis: US fears war in South Asia

By ANWAR IQBAL, UPI South Asian Affairs Analyst

WASHINGTON, May 22 (UPI) -- U.S. diplomats engaged in talks with India and Pakistan -- South Asia's two nuclear rivals -- said Wednesday that neither side understands how close they are to war.

"We are concerned about them going to war -- the first time for two nuclear powers -- we are taking it very seriously," a senior state department official told reporters. "There is a whole lot of activity there."

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According to diplomats, the Indians believe that they can launch a limited military offensive in the disputed Kashmir region without provoking an all-out war.

On the other hand, the Pakistanis believe that India is not serious about an offensive. Islamabad believes that the current mobilization of Indian troops along the border is aimed at intimidating Pakistan but that the Indians will not cross the line of control dividing the disputed state.

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U.S. negotiators are trying to convince both sides to take each other more seriously. They tell the Indians that if they launch a limited offensive in Kashmir, Pakistan will retaliate, causing a full-fledged war.

Their message for Pakistan: Take the Indian war drums more seriously. They have had enough violence in their part of Kashmir and are ready to put an end to it, even if it means going to war.

Officials at the State Department told reporters in Washington on Wednesday that the other world powers are equally worried about the situation in the Subcontinent.

"The entire international community believes that the possibility of the first ever war between two nuclear powers is very, very serious," said the senior State Department official. "The situation can spin out of control."

"No, we don't think it is mere rhetoric," said the official when asked to comment on Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's declaration Wednesday that the time "for a decisive fight" has come.

During a visit to the line of control that divides Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani zones, Vajpayee said it was time to "be ready for sacrifices, to be ready for a victory and for a decisive fight."

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Kashmir has been disputed between India and Pakistan since their independence from Britain in 1947 and has already caused two wars. Since Dec. 13, when a group of Kashmiri militants attacked the Indian parliament, both sides have deployed more than a million troops along their borders and are also believed to have moved nuclear-capable missiles there.

Last week, a terrorist attack on an Indian military camp further escalated the tensions by killing 31 people, mainly women and children. After the attack, even the opposition joined in urging the Indian government to launch a retaliatory attack on Pakistan. The Indian prime minister responded by declaring that he would "retaliate soon."

The attack was particularly embarrassing to Washington as it happened on the day a senior U.S. official, Christina Rocca, arrived in New Delhi to urge Indian leaders to resume bilateral talks with Pakistan. Washington has been urging them to engage each other in talks ever since the Sept. 11 attacks in New York and Washington.

The United States believes that an armed clash between India and Pakistan could hurt the war on terror. Washington became even more involved after the Dec. 13 attack on the Indian parliament, telling both not to go to war for settling disputes. Last week's terrorist attack on the Indian army camp added a sense or urgency to its appeals for peace.

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But so far such appeals have had little impact, partially because the United States has its own constraints.

Washington appreciates the help it has received from Pakistan in fighting terrorists in neighboring Afghanistan. U.S. officials also believe that they would "continue to need this help in the future as well," as the senior State Department official said. They also want to avoid creating a situation that could cause problems for President Pervez Musharraf who, as the official said, supported the U.S. war efforts despite strong opposition at home.

They realize that Kashmir is a popular issue and Musharraf needs time to disband and weaken the groups fighting against the Indian rule in Kashmir.

But they also appreciate the Indian position. India is the largest country in South Asia. Washington has close trade and political ties with it and is eager to further augment these ties.

U.S. officials understand that "the Indian government is facing tremendous pressure inside India" to stop cross-border infiltrations into Kashmir, even if it involved going to war against Pakistan.

Unwilling to choose between India and Pakistan and anxious to please both, the Americans are reluctant to use pressure sometimes needed to resolve such complex issues.

Even at the background briefing, the State Department official tried not to take positions on any difficult issue. Every time reporters asked why Musharraf was not stopping cross-border guerrilla operations in Kashmir, the official spoke of Musharraf's support in fighting al Qaida terrorists in Afghanistan and of his efforts to combat terrorism at home.

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Similarly, while emphasizing that only "resumption of talks between India and Pakistan could defuse" the potentially explosive situation, the official refused to comment when a reporter asked if it was India that opposed bilateral talks.

The official also avoided using the term "mediation" while defining the U.S. efforts to defuse tensions, aware that India -- which regards the Kashmir issue as an internal matter -- rejects any third-country mediation.

The way these questions were handled shows that the Americans have chosen a difficult path for themselves: using soft persuasion and peaceful logic to disengage two adversaries who are already at each other's throats. It may or may not work.

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