MOSCOW, April 30 (UPI) -- A recently declassified National Intelligence Council report found at the CIA's Web site, "Global Trends 2015," has Russia's media, politicians and citizens pondering the country's future. Could the Russian Federation breakup into a number of smaller states by 2015? Not surprisingly, a number of high-ranking officials completely dismiss the report's forecasts, but many Russians appear not to be so sure.
"Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Non-government Experts" was complied by the National Intelligence Council over a 15-month period and published in December 2000. Russia, which was not the focus of the report, is described to be in a perilous state. Indeed, from the vantage point of 2000 and especially the 15 months before the report was published, Russia's future was anything but secure.
Probably the most concise view of Russia in the report is the following: "Between now and 2015, Moscow will be challenged even more than today to adjust its expectations for world leadership to its dramatically reduced resources. Whether the country can make the transition in adjusting ends to means remains an open and critical question, according to most experts, as does the question of the character and quality of Russian governance and economic policies. The most likely outcome is a Russia that remains internally weak and institutionally linked to the international system primarily through its permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. In this view, whether Russia can adjust to this diminished status in a manner that preserves rather than upsets regional stability is also uncertain. The stakes for both Europe and the United States will be high, although neither will have the ability to determine the outcome for Russia in 2015. Russian governance will be the critical factor."
In retrospect, the report's impressions of Russia then appear to be accurate. After four years of Vladimir Putin as president, one is left with the tantalizing thought that the Kremlin had access to this report long before it was declassified. Whether it is domestic or international concerns, Putin's Kremlin has addressed and has signaled that it will continue move on the issues cited above. The bleak picture of Russia four years ago was warranted, though today much less so.
However, this is not what the fuss is about. The following sentence is what has raised interest and concern: "Many Russian futures are possible, ranging from political resurgence to dissolution." A number of Russian media outlets either mistakenly or willing overstressed the prospect of dissolution, going as far as presenting readers with future maps of a diminished Russia and new states in what is now Siberia. Nowhere in the report is there a detailed forecast of Russia's future borders.
While predicting Russia's future is a hazardous task, the political fallout of predicting Russia's demise was very predictable. Russia's political class reacted between two extremes denouncing the report -- from the CIA's secret hope for Russia's future, to the CIA's complete disregard of Russia as a partner on the international stage. Clearly those in the political class who have resisted Putin's turn to the West, especially the United States, see the report as evidence of ulterior motives secretly nurtured by America's spooks.
After five years of solid economic growth and political stabilization (for better or worse), gloomy predications forecasting Russia's demise appear to be out of step with recent trends. Government officials who commented on the report repeated a litany of figures and future policies that demonstrate that Russia's recovery from the Soviet collapse is irreversible and with a bright future. Such commentary was expected.
What was not expected was how many Russians see the country's future.
An opinion poll conducted by radio station Ekho Moskvy this week discovered that 71 percent of those surveyed (3,380 people) considered that the disintegration of the country was a "real threat." Why so many people believe there is a threat to Russia's future sovereignty was not revealed in the survey. However, the survey may be a snapshot of some deeper fears residing in Putin's Russia.
It would seem that the report's comment, "Many Russian futures are possible, ranging from political resurgence to dissolution," is just as true today as it was believed four years ago for many Russians. Putin appears to have a clear understanding of that many Russians want in the present. But, he has not convinced many that the present that he has created will bring about a secure future. For all the successes Putin can claim during his first term in office, he has yet to persuade many Russians that his tenure as head of state is anything more that the suspension of disbelief of deep-seated pessimism concerning Russia's fate in the world. Putin is disproving the report's forecast, now he has to convince the average Russia that a different future is possible.
(Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" www.untimely-thoughts).
