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Analysis: EU braced for Berlusconi show

By GARETH HARDING, Chief European Correspondent

BRUSSELS, June 30 (UPI) -- They have been described as Italy's "odd couple" -- the political equivalent of the garrulous old roommates played so memorably by Walter Matthau and Jack Lemmon in the eponymous film.

On the one hand there is Silvio Berlusconi, the bronzed former cruise ship crooner who went on to become Italy's richest businessman and its most powerful politician.

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On the other, there is Romano Prodi, the modest economics professor from Bologna who was briefly prime minister before becoming president of the European Commission in Brussels.

The differences don't end there.

Soccer-crazy Berlusconi owns AC Milan, Europe's reigning football champions; cycling-mad Prodi is the proud owner of a push bike.

The media magnate, who governs a television and newspaper empire to rival Rupert Murdoch's, is a master of communications and never misses a chance to flash a toothy grin to photographers; whereas the more timid Prodi often comes across as a bumbling academic.

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Berlusconi rules a three-party right-wing coalition of post-fascists, nationalists and populists; Prodi held together a rag-bag grouping of leftist forces that included former communists and greens.

In normal circumstances, these glaring differences would not matter. But on Tuesday, Italy takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union, which means that for the next 6 months the two men will have to steer the bloc's political agenda, represent the Union on the world stage and communicate its successes and failures to the European public.

This could be a tall order given the depth of personal animosity between the two men. Prodi, who beat the current premier in a 1996 general election, once remarked: "Compared to Berlusconi, Goebbels was just a kid." For his part, the billionaire businessman-turned-politician dismissed his erudite rival as "that nice cyclist."

The tension between the statesmen flared up again last month when Berlusconi accused Prodi of selling a food company to a political ally when the commission chief was head of Italy's state-owned industries. The man who once declared: "What is good for me is good for Italy" is suspected of bribing judges to obtain control of the firm.

Earlier this month, the Italian Parliament granted Berlusconi immunity while in office, saving the premier the embarrassment of having to defend himself in court during his stint at the helm of the EU.

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The decision was a Pyrrhic victory for Berlusconi, but a disaster for the image of Italy abroad.

The latest edition of Germany's popular Der Spiegel magazine features the diminutive prime minister sitting smugly on a golden throne. "Silvio Berlusconi, The Godfather, now showing in the whole of Europe," screams the headline, making allusion to the mafia boss immortalized in Francis Ford Coppola's movie masterpiece.

"At home he demolishes the justice system, subjugates television, has parliament make laws tailored to his needs," said the Sunday edition of the best-selling publication. "Now Italy's head of government Silvio Berlusconi will represent Europe."

Italian papers are equally worried by the prospect of the EU being run by Berlusconi during a 6-month period in which the bloc hopes to agree a new constitution and make final preparations for the entry of 10 new members from Eastern Europe.

"Doubt is writ large on front pages across the continent: does the Cavaliere have the moral qualities and competence necessary to take on the leadership of the Union for the coming six months?" asked the Corriere Della Serra, using the prime minister's Italian nickname.

The answer from Europe's media is an unequivocal "no."

"At this moment in history, Europe might have hoped to be piloted by a man of undisputed moral and political leadership. That will not be the case," wrote French daily Le Monde.

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"Europe fears the imminent presidency of Berlusconi," opined Spain's flagship paper El Pais, while The Economist blared the self-made man was "unfit to lead Europe."

It is not just the media tycoon's dubious business dealings that unnerve European leaders -- recent foreign policy pronouncements have also caused consternation.

On a recent tour of the Middle East, Berlusconi refused to meet Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat despite the fact the EU sees him as the legitimate spokesman of the Palestinian people.

He has argued in favor of Ukraine, Russia and even Israel joining the Union at a time when the bloc is struggling to cope with the imminent entry of 10 largely former communist countries.

And as the EU grapples with the task of curbing illegal immigration, one of his own ministers -- Northern League leader Umberto Bossi -- urged the Italian navy to blow migrant ships out of the water.

The "Berlusconi show," which is set to play in European capitals for the next 6 months, might offend liberal critics but it is likely to keep audiences on the edge of their seats.

For if there is one thing the 66-year old leader is good at it is putting on a performance. When Group of Eight leaders met in Genoa in 2001, he made sure bunches of grapes were tied to trellises. And when NATO chiefs descended on a military airbase outside Rome, he ordered the construction of a fake Doric-columned temple to provide a suitable backdrop for photo-shoots.

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Anyone who has had the misfortune of watching Italian game shows on television will recognize where this taste for gaudy and grandiose comes from. The problem is, it is no longer just Italian audiences that will be subjected to the Berlusconi spectacle -- the whole of Europe is braced for 6 months of high farce and low politics.

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