WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 (UPI) -- If current global water usage trends continue, the planet will face a serious water shortage in the coming decades that could lead to public health problems and environmental damage, a research group warned in a report released Wednesday.
The report, "Global Water Outlook to 2025: Averting an Impending Crisis," is based on a computer model that predicts if current water management trends go unchanged, water scarcity in that year will result in worldwide losses of approximately 350 million metric tons of food production. That staggering figure is slightly greater than the entire U.S. annual grain crop.
"We could actually see a full-blown water crisis in the coming years," Mark Rosegrant, lead author of the report and a senior research fellow at the nonprofit International Food Policy Research Institute, told reporters at a news conference.
As populations increase around the globe, Rosegrant explained, so will the competition for freshwater sources necessary for domestic, industrial and agricultural needs. Such a crisis would have rippling effects throughout the world's economies and the health of its citizens.
"We really don't have a lot of time to waste," Rosegrant said.
The IFPRI prepared the report in collaboration with the International Water Management Institute, a nonprofit scientific group in Battaramulla, Sri Lanka. Its release was timed for Oct. 16 to mark World Food Day.
According to the report, demand for water for non-irrigation uses will rise by 62 percent between now and 2025. At the same time, household water demand will increase by 71 percent, with more than 90 percent of that figure from developing nations where many households already lack connections to clean, piped water.
Although the developing world would be hardest hit by a global water crisis, the report states, demand for water for industrial needs also is expected to rise dramatically in the coming decades. In addition, many nations could face increased dependence on food imports if they cannot meet their crop irrigation requirements. Therefore a global water shortage could lead to skyrocketing food prices. The report projects the price of rice would increase by 40 percent, wheat by 80 percent and corn by 120 percent if current water demand trends continue.
Rosegrant said among the report's recommendations are raising the price of water while taking steps to keep water affordable to poorer communities. Water trading is another option, he said. For example, private or public sectors could pay farmers for water the farmers are willing to give up. Repairing leaks and using more household efficient items, such as low-flow shower heads, also could help reduce the problem, he said.
Despite the gloomy picture the report projects, Rosegrant said "there's a little more cause for optimism than there was two or three years ago."
Some nations have employed irrigation technologies that could serve as models for others. Treadle pumps, used by farmers in Bangladesh, were introduced to farmers in Zambia. Treadle pumps, which are powered by people, can bring water up from wells at a rate of 5-to-7 cubic meters per hour. Instead of lugging buckets of water to their crops, farmers pumping water with treadle pumps doubled their crop production, according to the report.
Such steps are useful only on a small scale, however. Water shortages in major countries such as those in Asia could have huge impacts on the world food supply.
Sandra Postel, director of the Global Water Policy Project in Amherst, Mass., and author of the 1999 book, "Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last?" said Southeast Asia is extremely vulnerable. China and India -- each with populations of over 1 billion -- and Pakistan rely heavily on irrigation to produce their own food.
"They're currently using water unsustainably," Postel told United Press International. "It may just be a matter of time before they won't be able to be as self-sufficient." Then these nations would have to turn to the world market for food, which would impact the international grain industry significantly, Postel said.
"Water scarcity is becoming a very big constraint on future food production and food security and it's going to take a major change how we value and manage water" to turn things around, Postel added. "Irrigation is by far the biggest use of the world's water and by far where we have the most potential to save water."
The United States is fortunate, Postel explained, because its grain-producing farms in the Midwest are primarily rain-fed and do not depend so much on irrigation.
Rosegrant added the United States is poised to gain more from this situation than other countries because it is one of the biggest grain producers in the world and, because of its geography, it is less dependent on irrigation.
