WASHINGTON, March 27 (UPI) -- Most wars move not at a steady pace but in a series of fits and starts. For about half a year, we have been enjoying something of a lull in the war in Iraq. Anything that reduces casualties is to be welcomed. But the bulletins' claims that the downward trend in violence will continue should be seen more as political vaporing than military analysis. Events begin to suggest that the lull is ending and Mars is in the ascendant.

WASHINGTON, March 11 (UPI) -- One of several dead hands the First Generation of Modern War lays on contemporary state militaries' throats is linearity. Most state militaries both seek and expect linearity on and off the battlefield.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 27 (UPI) -- Between Feb. 8 and Feb. 14, four American schools suffered attacks by lone gunmen. The most recent, at Northern Illinois University on Feb. 14, saw five killed, plus the gunman, and 16 wounded. Similar attacks have occurred elsewhere, including shopping malls.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 19 (UPI) -- Retired U.S. Air Force Col. Chet Richards has published another short, good book: "If We Keep It: A National Security Manifesto for the Next Administration."

WASHINGTON, Feb. 14 (UPI) -- One of the more intriguing questions Clio, the ancient Greek Muse of History, poses is the degree to which great military victories were the fruit of smart plans as opposed to dumb luck. Did the North Vietnamese expect the Tet Offensive to be a tactical defeat but an operational victory? They now claim they did, but we will not know until their archives are opened.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- Two of the greatest generals in U.S. history won their greatest battles because they were out of touch with their headquarters or refused to be reined in by them.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 28 (UPI) -- For centuries, continental wars that included Britain tended to follow a pattern. The British would send an army to the continent; it would be defeated by the French or Germans; the British would withdraw to their island; and their triumphant European enemy would draw up a superior force on the French or Dutch Channel coast. There was little doubt about the outcome, should that army land in Britain. But it could never get across the English Channel.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 25 (UPI) -- As we observe the increasingly certain disintegration of Pakistan, we should realize events there are to a large degree side effects of our war in Afghanistan.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 9 (UPI) -- A piece in the Dec. 27, 2007, Cleveland Plain Dealer, "Vote on fate of Kirkuk postponed," by Tina Susman and Asso Ahmed of the LA Times, reported that "Kurdish lawmakers agreed Wednesday to a six-month delay in a referendum on whether the oil-rich city of Kirkuk should join the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan or remain under Iraqi central government control. …