WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 (UPI) -- I am not going to discuss the issue of whether to invade Iraq, because I believe it is going to be done. However, assuming the invasion leads this time to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, it's worth giving some consideration of what comes afterwards.
Indeed, once the dogs of war have been let slip, we cannot readily foresee the havoc that will result. It would be foolish to go into war with Iraq without being willing to contemplate the possibility of a thorough occupation and reconstruction. If the job of cleansing the effects of the Stasi from East German life is still ongoing after 10 years, how long is it going to take to cleanse the effects of Saddam's secret police from Iraq?
This is no reason to shy away from the task. But it is a reason to begin considering what must be done. With that in mind, Anglosphere this week proposes eight rules of thumb for an occupying power in Iraq.
Rule One: Plant oak trees. The first task of an occupier is to destroy the hope of the adherents of the past dictatorship that the occupiers can be outwaited, chased away by the inflicting of casualties, or otherwise survived. Send a message that the occupation may outlast their natural life. Plant oak trees to shade the walk of the occupation commander -- 20 years later.
Rule Two: Guarantee external frontiers. For the peace of mind of Iraq's neighbors and the Iraqis themselves, and to avoid unneeded conflict, make it clear that the allied occupation forces are not going to carve up Iraq. Turkey should not have to fear a Kurdish state on its frontier; Iraqis should know that they are guaranteed protection against foreign incursions.
Rule Three: Don't try to synthesize an Iraqi nation. Iraq has never existed as a coherent nation-state. It was at different times a Turkish province, a British colonial creation and a personal milk cow for successive rulers. Instead of "rebuilding" an Iraqi nation that never existed, focus on creating a functioning political regime that guarantees the basics of civil society for its inhabitants: safe streets through competent policing; honest adjudication in courts; economic opportunity you don't have to bribe anyone to access; propaganda-free education for the children; smoothly functioning infrastructure. There's lots of oil money to pay for these things if it isn't siphoned
off to politicians' offshore accounts.
Rule Four: Think Switzerland, not France or Germany. Switzerland was once an impoverished collection of mutually hostile ethnic, religious and social minorities. No one group ever was able to force others into its mold. Rather, they gradually made a unique society work by very strictly decentralizing government and minimizing the politically dispensed goodies that ethnic groups traditionally fight over. Now it is a wealthy collection of mutually but mildly suspicious ethnic, religious, and social minorities.
Rather than retaining a unitary nation-state, the occupiers should establish a Swiss-style system of many autonomous, almost-independent cantons. Let these cantons, defined roughly around coherent ethnic and religious populations, run almost everything the central government now does. Each can declare whatever languages and religious holidays their local populations prefer as official.
Give them all block grants from oil revenues, which should be collected and disbursed for the initial period by the occupation authority. Each canton should have its own university, international airport and all the other goodies, which they will never want to give up to a new central authority. The army should be based entirely on cantonal forces, with adequate defensive weaponry but no offensive weaponry, just like the Swiss.
Hold cantonal elections soon and set up the cantonal governments quickly; wait a while before establishing a confederal congress. Eventually, the cantons can send representatives to a confederal congress, which can take over as the national government of Iraq and run its foreign policy again.
Separation of the functions of head of state and head of government is probably a good idea. Such a congress may choose a constitutional monarch as head of state, or it may choose a Swiss-style multiple presidency. No more Glorious Leaders, please.
Rule Five. Get out of Baghdad. Decentralization means not making Baghdad the big prize to be fought over. Paris may have been worth a mass, but Baghdad should not be worth a coup. Establish a minimal confederal capital (the foreign ministry, the coordination staff for the cantonal forces, foreign embassies, the confederal congress, etc.) in some pleasant little mountain resort town. Make it a District of Euphratia or some such thing separate from any of the cantons. Disperse all national institutions (universities, media headquarters, etc.) to cantonal capitals, leaving only a city university to serve the local population. Let Baghdad be the vibrant commercial city its enterprising inhabitants would probably make of it if set free to do so; let it no longer be the center to be fought over. It should be a self-governing canton of its own.
Rule Six: When in doubt, privatize. Arabs have a brilliant history as merchants, and Islam is the only religion founded by a businessman. Conversely, Arab nations have had very difficult times establishing effective modern states. This is a clue.
Privatize every economic function possible. Public corporations are targets for ethnic strife and sources of gross corruption. Abolish external trade barriers and controls. Break up all legally established monopolies. Those functions that are still government-run should be run by the cantons. Consider basing a currency on gold coinage, not because of its inherent virtues, but because it could function automatically, with minimal government input. Iraqi businesses should do well in this environment.
Rule Seven. Tolerate no nonsense. Allied occupation authorities in Germany permitted no Nazi propaganda, organizing or display of symbols. School and university curricula were reviewed and de-Nazified. This kept the population focused on the future, not the
past. The occupation authorities in Iraq should take the same attitude in regard to the Saddam regime.
Many of Saddam's closest supporters were drawn from his home town of Tikrit. Those cleared of gross crimes should be allowed to return to Tikrit and be active in the new canton established there; it's always good to give potential enemies something positive to do. However, they should be watched carefully to ensure they do not use it as a base to plot the reestablishment of dictatorship. Reimpose direct rule if a cantonal government is flagrantly abusing its autonomy.
Rule Eight: The Golden Rule. That is to say, he who has the gold makes the rules. In this case it's the oil. The occupation authorities should retain direct control over the oil fields, sell the oil and disburse the revenues in block grants to the cantons, keeping only operating expenses and reparations for victims of Saddam and his terrorists' aggression.
Any noncompliance whatsoever will get the block grants cut off. This should continue until the new cantonal governments demonstrate a reasonable track record of operation and the confederal congress re-establishes Iraq as an international actor. Just as occupation of Germany and Japan eventually ended, so must Iraq's.
None of these measures can guarantee that Iraq will ever be as peaceful or democratic as Switzerland, or even that it will work at all. However, it is likely to be less strife-ridden, less violent, less oppressive to its citizens and less dangerous to its neighbors and to the world than what exists there now.
