Hamas will swallow Fatah in proposed unity partnership

WASHINGTON, Jan. 26 (UPI) -- In purely military terms Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, lost its three-week war in Gaza to Israel, but it is already making giant strides in winning the peace.

Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire in Gaza Sunday after 22 days of military operations to crush Hamas' military power and kill several of its main leaders. Some 1,285 Palestinians were killed in the conflict, according to the Palestinian Center for Human Rights. Israel reported that only 10 Israeli soldiers and three civilians were killed. It said some of its soldiers were killed accidentally by friendly fire.

EU and Arab ministers have united in urging that Hamas and its chief rival, the Fatah movement that still controls the West Bank -- barely -- unify so that relief supplies can get into Gaza. Their call was part of a massive effort by world leaders to simultaneously unify the Palestinians and impose moderation on Hamas.

EU leaders, like the new Obama administration in the United States, desperately want to build up weak and moderate Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on the West Bank as a credible leader for the Palestinian people who can sign and enforce a peace agreement with Israel.

Abbas led the charge last week with a public call for Hamas to join with his Fatah movement in a unity government. And on Monday, top Palestinian Authority officials Azzam al-Ahmed and Saleh Rafaat led a Fatah group that publicly met with Hamas representatives in Cairo. It was the first meeting between senior figures in the two groups in 10 months.

The organization that represents every nation in the Muslim world has been working hard for months to bring Hamas and Fatah together. Abdoulaye Wade, president of the West African nation of Senegal and the current president of the 57-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference, had been working hard to arrange such a meeting for months, but he got nowhere until Israel launched its 22-day military attack on Gaza to end years of rocket bombardments from Hamas.

However, ensuring that Abbas remains top dog, or even survives any partnership with Hamas, will be an uphill struggle. As Isabel Kershner of The New York Times reported during the conflict, support for Hamas soared across the West Bank during the three-week conflict, and Abbas, already low in popularity and credibility with his people, fell to rock bottom for his passivity, refusal to challenge Israel and to bring any effective support to his fellow Palestinians in Gaza during the struggle.

This development fulfilled the prediction of UPI columnist William S. Lind, a leading U.S. expert on guerrilla and counterinsurgency war, who warned that in such conflicts the moral factors are 100 times more important than the physical casualties suffered or inflicted. The greater the Palestinian death toll in Gaza, Lind predicted, the more Abbas' remaining credibility would be inexorably eroded.

Even before Israel launched its three-week mini-war right after the new year to pulverize Hamas forces in Gaza and kill several of the movement's leaders, Abbas was a fading force on the West Bank, forced to rely on Hamas approval and guarantees of protection before he even traveled in parts of the cities in his own territory.

A new report from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank by Hassan Barari published Jan. 22 supports Lind's analysis. Barari wrote that King Abdullah II of Jordan fired his top intelligence commander, Muhammad Dahabi, head of the General Intelligence Department, during the Gaza conflict and replaced him with one of his lieutenants, Gen. Muhammad Raqqad.

"Dahabi is widely believed to have been a driving force behind King Abdullah's summer 2008 decision to thaw relations with Hamas -- frozen since 2000," Barari wrote.

"Within the GID, the working assumption was that the Palestinian Authority under Abbas would collapse in 2009, leaving either a power vacuum or allowing Hamas to take the helm," he continued.

However, King Abdullah and his ally President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt were angered by pro-Hamas popular demonstrations in Jordan during the Gaza conflict. Barari concluded that "Raqqad's appointment may be an indication that the government has decided to end its brief flirtation with Hamas and turn inward to protect its domestic front." As we have noted in previous columns, the Iranian-backed Hamas is viewed by the governments of Egypt and Jordan as a threat to their stability as well.

European, Arab and Muslim leaders are trying to team the fading force of Fatah with the still rising power of Hamas. It seems unlikely that the enforced partnership will be a happy one.