Hillary facing smooth confirmation hearing as secretary of state

WASHINGTON, Jan. 13 (UPI) -- After a political life filled with tempests, Hillary Clinton looks set for smooth sailing at her confirmation hearings to become secretary of state this week.

No great fireworks are expected: Hillary's eight years in the Senate were productive, smooth-running and successful, especially in the eyes of her fellow senators. And historically, senators from both parties like to make confirmation easy for members in good standing of their "club."

President-elect Barack Obama is in his honeymoon period as well. Republicans in the Senate are in no mood to pick a fight after getting their numbers decimated in the November elections, and they regard Hillary as the toughest and least undesirable choice of any that Obama could have made for secretary of state. Republican senators, in fact, have gone out of their way to speak well of her from their experience working with her as a colleague.

There are likely to be some pointed questions about the foundation of Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton, his fundraising activities and whether it will muddy the waters for her as secretary of state. But no great surprises are anticipated there either. Obama, who functions efficiently and thoroughly when he can best anticipate problems, recognized this one in advance, and his staff has been working very closely for many weeks with both Clintons to clear any questions in these areas.

The confirmation hearings also will give the American public and the wider world a first glimpse of how U.S. foreign policy is going to move in key areas around the world.

Here, too, no surprises are anticipated. Obama and Hillary may well want to ease tensions with Iran quickly, or they may want to send a tough message to the mullahs first about the need for them to halt their nuclear program.

Hillary may be expected to sound relatively hard on this issue. The expectation is that she will function as Obama's experienced, veteran "tough cop" who will serve to give credibility to the idea that the young "new sheriff in town" is prepared to act decisively when necessary. But in any negotiations, it's routine for both sides to stake out their hardest positions first, so tough talk on Iran in the hearings certainly will not rule out exploratory diplomacy that could lead to presidential-level meetings relatively soon.

This same pattern of tough talk followed by a willingness to negotiate backed by the threat of economic sanctions is likely to apply to the Obama-Clinton policy on North Korea as well. Both the president-elect and his designated secretary of state believe that outgoing President George W. Bush's macho policy of lecturing the North and rejecting direct talks was a total failure and a waste of time. Both of them want to bring North Korea back into the six-party process in Beijing, and both would like to generate a momentum of talks to break down the barriers of distrust with Pyongyang.

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Obama and Clinton see eye-to-eye about the need to revive a credible peace process as quickly as possible. It was no surprise that on the very morning Clinton's confirmation hearings were scheduled to start, U.S. newspapers also reported that Ambassador Dennis Ross would be returning to his old job as peace envoy.

In reality, Ross's seven years as peace envoy during the Oslo peace process from 1993 to 2000 were a study in wasted energy and futility, and circumstances for a lasting peace were vastly greater then than now. In those days, Hamas was a mere marginal element. Today it runs Gaza and threatens Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' remaining power on the West Bank.

But Democrats revere Ross as the nearest thing they think they have to a Henry Kissinger, and the appointment will be well received. Also, Ross has lots of experience in dealing with former Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who looks set to reclaim his old job in the Israeli elections on Feb. 10.

The one area in which Clinton may talk truly tough is Afghanistan. Obama has repeatedly pledged to pour more U.S. troops in there to reverse the decline that the NATO-backed government of President Hamid Karzai has experienced at the hands of the resurgent Taliban.

Expect no real fireworks from these hearings. But the parlous state of the world that Clinton faces means she is sure to run into lots of them later.