Obama has many paths to win, McCain has only one

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (UPI) -- It's Mission Improbable for Sen. John McCain on U.S. Election Day 2008. Sen. Barack Obama has many paths to reach the magic figure of 270 votes in the Electoral College, but for McCain, everything has to fall out just right.

Obama, D-Ill., the Democratic presidential nominee, remains solid in all the states that Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., won in 2004, amounting to 252 electoral votes. In other words, Obama already has secured his essential base.

But he also leads in five "red" states that went to President George W. Bush in 2004: Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Sweeping those would give him 291, giving him some margin for error.

McCain, R-Ariz., by contrast, has none. He must win all the toss-up states, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and former solid red states Indiana and North Carolina, and then make some inroads into the Bush states where Obama is leading -- hence the push in Virginia -- or steal a Kerry state -- hence the focus on Pennsylvania. He has to win at least a couple of those states.

As Steve Kornacki wrote in the New York Observer Tuesday, "Given the number of red states that are in play -- and the lack of competitive blue states -- John McCain will be clinging to life from the moment the first polls close."

Real Clear Politics in its average of the most recent polls listed nine states as toss-ups Tuesday: Florida, North Carolina, Mississippi, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, Arizona, Virginia and Ohio. The RCP average of polls also had Obama leading outside the 5-point margin of error in Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

Pennsylvania has looked like Mission Impossible for McCain, and he has focused on it in the closing days of his campaign. Last-minute polling figures there suggest he has failed, remaining below that crucial 50-percent barrier in what is for all intents and purposes a two-horse race. But as the Evans-Novak Political Report pointed out Monday, if McCain does pull off an underdog surprise to take Pennsylvania, he can thank his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has been barnstorming the western part of the state.

The outcome of the election could be clear early in the evening. For returns will be announced earlier in the eastern half of the country, including the five toss-up states of Ohio, Florida, Missouri and former solid red states Indiana and North Carolina, plus Virginia, Pennsylvania and Iowa.

The ENPR concluded, "McCain can probably only afford to lose one of those and still have a shot in the western states. His popular vote count will be in the low 50 percent range, at best -- all the paths to a Republican victory look like nearly impossible climbs."

The ENPR notes that Obama is also "threatening in North Carolina, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana and others. Even if McCain were to hang onto all of those competitive states including Virginia, he would have to pull off a serious upset somewhere else -- and none of the Obama-leaning states (besides Virginia) appear to be within reach."

Obama has won the race for a majority of Catholic voters, Hispanic voters and Jewish voters, where polls suggest he has a lock on at least 75 percent, despite the exceptionally strong and long pro-Israel record of McCain. He leads by around 93 percent of African-American voters as the first ever black presidential candidate of either major party. That could prove crucial in Georgia, a longtime GOP conservative stronghold where 35 percent of voters are African-American.

However, Real Clear Politics noted that support for Obama has softened in Virginia and Ohio, moving those two states from leaning Obama to "toss-up" status.

McCain's fading hopes have to rest on the as yet unproven assumptions that a great number of silent voters either did not tell pollsters they would not vote for Obama, or that growing doubts about Obama's lack of experience, significant legislative or administrative achievement or long, sustained exposure in the national spotlight will tilt significant numbers of last-minute undecided voters against him.

Obama is pinning his hopes on his superb national get-out-the-vote organization and the massive pre-election registration campaign he focused on. In past elections, these strategies have underperformed disastrously for the Democrats, but early returns indicate they are working fine this time.