Obama set to win with big leads in swing states

WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 (UPI) -- With less than a week to go to Election Day, the pundits are asking if Sen. Barack Obama can close the sale. He can for two reasons: the state of the economy and his background as a community organizer in Chicago.

Opinion polls currently show a mixed picture. The latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll has Obama, D-Ill., 3 points ahead of his rival, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. The latest Gallup tracking poll shows the margin even narrower at 2 points. But the Wednesday Zogby tracking poll gave Obama a far more impressive 9-point margin.

Obama has a far stronger lead in key major states. He has effectively locked down Pennsylvania and Michigan, the two crucial battleground states any Democratic candidate needs to win the presidency. And the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll reported Wednesday also gives Obama wide, even commanding margins of victory in Ohio and Florida, the two big states that McCain must hold to have any chance of victory at all. The Los Angeles Times puts Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent in Ohio and 50 percent to 43 percent in Florida.

Pundits used to the old world of super-organized, focused Republicans and sloppy, underperforming Democrats still discount these figures. Morton Kondracke argued over the weekend that Obama's figures in key battleground states hang tantalizingly at or slightly below 50 percent. Kondracke argues that this means Obama has not yet closed the deal.

But this is specious reasoning. Three of the past four U.S. presidential elections were won by candidates who polled well under 50 percent of the total popular vote: That was true of Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, when Ross Perot running as a third-party candidate creamed off probably twice as many potential Republican voters as Democratic ones. And it was true in 2000, when incumbent Vice President Al Gore won half a million more votes than his Republican opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush but still managed to lose the election.

This time there is no significant third-party candidate running, and McCain is woefully worse organized and not remotely as well funded as Obama. Most important of all, the economy unexpectedly emerged as the trump card in the last weeks of the campaign since the great Wall Street meltdown. Obama certainly has been vague and cynical on the subject, but McCain has had virtually nothing credible to say on it at all. His economic message remains as general, conventional and unfocused as it was before Lehman Brothers' collapse set off the greatest crisis and stock-value falls that the United States has seen in generations.

Kondracke is also wrong in assuming that candidates need 50-percent-plus margins to lock down individual crucial swing states. They do not: They need only a commanding lead in the popular vote, and the opinion polls already give Obama that. And in this election, the key trend to watch is not potential Democrats not going to the polls, but a far larger number of them -- especially newly registered voters -- doing so.

To maximize this potential turnout, local, grass-roots, well-funded and well-organized on-the-ground organization is crucial. McCain and his campaign have been unable to revive or maintain the superlative, micromanaged, niche-group-focused organization Karl Rove used to maximize the conservative Republican base in 2000 and 2004. Instead, organizations like MoveOn and ACORN have learned from the Rove campaigns and created that massive advantage for the Democrats.

This is where Obama's much derided months as a community organizer back in Chicago have proved crucial. He masterminded a decisive victory over heavily tipped front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in the Democratic primary race primarily by out-organizing her. In the national as well as the primary contest, his personal command of the nuts and bolts of his campaign across the nation has been outstanding.

It is also notable that Obama is very sensibly prioritizing funding for his get-out-the-vote teams in the key battleground states, especially Ohio and Florida. This means that, far from exaggerating Obama's already commanding lead in these states, recent polls probably are underestimating it.

Obama is now focusing on a final-lap advertising blitz of unprecedented intensity. There is some risk associated with this. Remaining swing voters might react against the bombardment and swing against Obama. The general rule of thumb, however, is that more advertising is good and less is bad. Republicans have never stinted the TV ad blitz whenever they had the money to fund one.

On Wednesday evening, therefore, the Obama campaign is broadcasting an unprecedented 30-minute infomercial that will run on all the networks except ABC, plus Univision, BET and MSNBC. Obama is also speaking at an evening rally in Florida, and the infomercial will cut to parts of it.

Former President Bill Clinton, a figure of great reassurance especially to older Jewish Democrats who may prove crucial in Florida, is scheduled to be on the stage there. Expect him to smile with Obama -- a lot.

It ain't over till it's over, and McCain could pose a come-from-behind challenge yet again. But it is important to note that there is no hint of complacency in the Obama campaign and no hint of any real optimism behind the public facade in the McCain one.

The possibility of an Obama blowout victory margin in the Electoral College should not be discounted. If the Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan polling data are correct, it won't even be close.