The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for events that could impact your portfolio this week.
Last week's activity offered the epitome of volatility, with huge fluctuations in direction commonplace, especially within the first and last half hours of trading. The market seemed unsure as to which direction to take, moving on new bits of concerning news flow (
as we warned here that it could in
last week's copy
). Three bombs in particular barraged the market: the solvency warning from American Home Mortgage (
NYSE: AHM); Standard & Poor's revised "negative outlook" for the credit rating of Bear Stearns', and Bear's CFO's description of the credit environment as the worst he had seen in decades; and finally July's Employment Situation Report indicating a potentially softening labor climate. After that trio of bad
liquor, who knew what hangover Monday could bring. That's exactly what had the market jittery on Friday afternoon, when sellers came in with purpose. It's suddenly en vogue to exit holdings and risk on Fridays, when it use to be the day for buying on deal speculation frenzy.
Alas, undeniably, Monday brings a new
day, though also a week's worth of potential minefield, depending on your outlook. The pessimist will surely be looking for the next lender, builder or insurer failure. Speaking of insurers, did you see Barron's frightening piece on ACA Capital (
NYSE: ACA). We suspect our favorite journal's editorial staff spent as much time drumming up the scariest title possible, as they did editing the entire piece, labeling it "Subprime's Ultimate Time Bomb." That was quite pessimistic fellows.
Optimists, on the other hand, will be looking on with glossy eyes and hopeful smiles toward Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee announcement. In times like these, Alan Greenspan’s Fed could usually be counted on to come to the rescue, but there's some debate as to how Mr. Bernanke's group will react. It seems certain they will address the critical topic of credit markets and liquidity. Many are hopeful that assertive commentary from the Fed and assurance that the overseer will be there if necessary, would be enough to settle shaky hands. After all, despite its focus on inflation and view that the subprime issue was contained, the group has indicated that economic growth, housing and credit issues would be closely watched for change. It's implied there that, "like a bridge over troubled waters, they will guide us through"; let's just hope that bridge was built recently and properly inspected. Implication aside, last week, two Fed governors contradicted each other with credit market related statements, but we'll take comfort in the fact that the last word was one of reassurance.
It's about time we take a closer look at the week ahead...
Monday is economic news light, so barring any early morning AHM type slam, and there's no guarantee of this, then the market should start to anticipate Tuesday's Fed statement. Again qualified by the absence of explosions in lending or anywhere else, we think the market will see inflows of capital in anticipation of good news from the Fed.
We're not sure this matters to anyone but Canadians, and we hope our fans in the great white north know we love them, but the Canadian markets are closed on Monday. In the States, Monday's earnings report schedule includes A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts (
NASDAQ:ACMR), American Science and Engineering (
NASDAQ: ASEI), Aqua America (
NYSE: WTR), Axis Capital Holdings (
NYSE: AXS), Blue Nile (
NASDAQ: NILE), Comstock Resources (
NYSE: CRK), Corrections Corp. of America (
NYSE: CXW), Dun & Bradstreet (
NYSE: DNB), Gladstone Capital (
NASDAQ: GLAD), HealthExtras (
NASDAQ: HLEX), Home Properties (
NYSE: HME), J2 Global Communications (
NASDAQ: JCOM), Mentor Corp. (
NYSE: MNT), New York Mortgage Trust (
NYSE: NTR), Novatel Wireless (
NASDAQ: NVTL), Plains All American Pipeline (
NYSE: PAA), Quality Systems (
NASDAQ: QSII), ResCare (
NASDAQ: RSCR), Sina Corp. (
NASDAQ: SINA), Spectra Energy (
NYSE: SE), Standard Motor (
NYSE: SMP), Sykes Enterprises (
NASDAQ: SYKE), U.S. Shipping Partners LP (
NYSE: USS), Vector Group (
NYSE: VGR), Washington Group International (
NYSE: WNG), Wynn Resorts (
NASDAQ: WYNN) and many others.
Tuesday brings the usual ICSC-UBS Weekly Same-Store Sales Report, and recent data indicates mall traffic is down. Last week's data showed a little bit of life though, as the group reported week-over-week growth of 1.1% and year-over-year growth of 3.2%. Internationally, South Korea is hosting a meeting of six nations to discuss energy aid for North Korea's nuclear compliance.
At 8:30 a.m. EDT, second quarter productivity is slated for report. In Q1, productivity rose 1.0%, while unit labor costs increased 1.8%, quarter-over-quarter. Barron's reported MFR's expectation for productivity to increase 2.0% this time around. At 2:15 p.m., the highly anticipated and likely week defining event occurs, the FOMC releases its policy statement. Most expect the group to keep the Fed-funds target rate at 5.25%. A cut would help to ease credit concerns, and a firm statement that the Fed remains ready to act if necessary may do the same. Continued hawkish inflationary commentary would, however, not be helpful at this point.
Later on Tuesday, June Consumer Credit is seen increasing by $5 billion, compared to $12.9 billion in May. There are a few ways to interpret consumer credit changes. An excessive or abnormal increase could be indicative of stretched consumers pushing it a bit more, while light growth could be construed as a result of tightening credit standards that could in turn impact consumer spending patterns. Or, if considered directly and simply, it would be an indicator of lower spending. For comparison purposes, the extremely cold month of April showed a consumer credit increase of just $2.6 billion.
We provide earnings report data because we know a good deal of you are traders seeking the next catalyst. Tuesday presents an extremely heavy earnings schedule including Affordable Residential Communities (
NYSE: HTH), Allied Healthcare (
NASDAQ: AHCI), Allos Therapeutics (
NASDAQ: ALTH), Atmos Energy (
NYSE: ATO), Avis Budget Group (
NYSE: CAR), Bayer AG (
NYSE: BAY), Bio-Rad Laboratories (
AMEX: BIO), Boston Beer Co. (
NYSE: SAM), BUCA, Inc. (
NASDAQ: BUCA), Charles River Laboratories (
NYSE: CRL), Church & Dwight (
NYSE: CHD), Churchill Downs (
NASDAQ: CHDN), Cisco Systems (
NASDAQ: CSCO), Cree (
NASDAQ: CREE), Dean Foods (
NYSE: DF), Duke Energy (
NYSE: DUK), El Paso (
NYSE: EP), EMC Insurance Group (
NASDAQ: EMCI), Emerson Electric (
NYSE: EMR), Equity One (
NYSE: EQY), Expeditors International (
NASDAQ: EXPD), Firstenergy (
NYSE: FE), Fluor Corp. (
NYSE: FLR), Golden Star Resources (
AMEX: GSS), Guitar Center (
NASDAQ: GTRC), Harrah's Entertainment (
NYSE: HET), Heely's Inc. (
NASDAQ: HLYS), Henry Schein (
NASDAQ: HSIC), HRPT Properties Trust (
NYSE: HRP), Integra LifeSciences (
NASDAQ: IART), International Securities Exchange (
NYSE: ISE), King Pharmaceuticals (
NYSE: KG), Leap Wireless (
NASDAQ: LEAP), Marsh & McLennan (
NYSE: MMC), Marvel Entertainment (
NYSE: MVL), McDermott International (
NYSE: MDR), Medicis (
NYSE: MRX), Middleby (
NASDAQ: MIDD), Molson Coors Brewing (
NYSE: TAP), Noven Pharmaceuticals (
NASDAQ: NOVN), Pacer International (
NASDAQ: PACR), Papa John's Int'l (
NASDAQ: PZZA), Performance Food Group (
NASDAQ: PFGC), PG&E (
NYSE: PCG), Pinnacle Entertainment (
NYSE: PNK), Pioneer Natural Resources (
NYSE: PXD), Playboy Enterprises (
NYSE: PLA), Priceline.com (
NASDAQ: PCLN), Ralcorp Holdings (
NYSE: RAH), ResMed (
NYSE: RMD), Spanish Broadcasting System (
NASDAQ: SBSA), Spectrum Brands (
NYSE: SPC), Steve Madden (
NASDAQ: SHOO), Techne (
NASDAQ: TECH), Tenet Healthcare (
NYSE: TNT), Tyco International (
NYSE: TYC), Universal Compression (
NYSE: UCO), Web.com (
NASDAQ: WWWW), WMS Industries (
NYSE: WMS), Yamana Gold (
NYSE: AUY) and many more.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its regular Purchase Index bright and early on
Wednesday morning. Even as treasury yields decline, mortgage rates appear sure to rise further in light of the worsening environment. While banks are lending more carefully, demand for homes also suffers due to concern that prices could drop further. June Wholesale Inventories are set for report at 10:00 a.m., with expectation for a 0.4% rise, according to Bloomberg's consensus. At 10:30, the EIA Petroleum Status Report is due. We plan to write a piece on the sector, discussing the recent divergence of share and commodity prices.
Overseas, the Bank of Australia is expected by many to raise rates Wednesday. Also, World Bank Head Robert Zoellick is set to meet with Asian ministers to discuss regional growth.
General Motors (
NYSE: GM) is scheduled to hold its annual event for analysts on Wednesday, and the earnings schedule includes 1-800-Flowers.com (
NASDAQ: FLWS), Advance Auto Parts (
NYSE: AAP), Allied Capital (
NYSE: ALD), American International Group (
NYSE: AIG), American Mortgage Acceptance (
AMEX: AMC), AmeriCredit (
NYSE: ACF), Autobytel.com (
NASDAQ: ABTL), Barr Pharmaceuticals (
NYSE: BRL), Biovail (
NYSE: BVF), Brightpoint (
NASDAQ: CELL), Capital Senior Living (
NYSE: CSU), Career Education (
NASDAQ: CECO), Coeur d'Alene Mines (
NYSE: CDE), Flowserve (
NYSE: FLS), Foster Wheeler (
NASDAQ: FWLT), Georgia Gulf (
NYSE: GGC), Hansen Natural (
NASDAQ: HANS), Hecla Mining (
NYSE: HL), Home Solutions of America (
NASDAQ: HSOA), Hospira (
NYSE: HSP), IdaCorp (
NYSE: IDA), Jack in the Box (
NYSE: JBX), MTS Medical Technologies (
AMEX: MPP), Neenah Paper (
NYSE: NP), NewStar Financial (
NASDAQ: NEWS), Pacific Ethanol (
NASDAQ: PEIX), Petrohawk Energy (
NYSE: HK), Polo Ralph Lauren (
NYSE: RL), Revlon (
NYSE: REV), Sotheby's (
NYSE: BID), Sprint Nextel (
NYSE: S), Station Casinos (
NYSE: STN), The Knot (
NASDAQ: KNOT), Toll Brothers (
NYSE: TOL), Turkcell (
NYSE: TKC), ViaSat (
NASDAQ: VSAT), Vital Signs (
NASDAQ: VITL), Westar Energy (
NYSE: WR), Xenos Group (
Toronto: XNS.TO), XOMA (
NASDAQ: XOMA) and others.
Thursday starts with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. The measure has hovered close to 300,000 lately, or just a bit higher. However, we continue to expect jobless claims to rise only after the monthly Employment Situation Report reflects meaningful weakness in the labor market. Before businesses start firing, they stop hiring, plain and simply. Therefore, Friday's report may have ominously forecast a coming change in the trend for the weekly new benefits filings. We think so. We expect housing construction to begin to better reflect the realities of the situation. We suspect the data has been fogged by the employment and firing of many
illegals by industry participants. We also expect more financial market, retail and consumer oriented businesses to increase layoffs in coming months.
Retailers report chain store sales on Thursday, and recent data indicates mall traffic is down. For the most part, the weekly sales data from the ICSC has not been positive either. Retailers might provide some bad news on Thursday that could sour the taste the Fed serves up. Also notable, Thursday marks the deadline for companies to file their 10Qs with the SEC, so problematic news not presented in corporations' preliminary press releases could surface as a result.
The EIA reports its weekly natural gas inventory on Thursday at 10:30. Markets in Singapore are closed, while Thursday's American earnings reports include 1-800 Contacts (
NASDAQ: CTAC), 4 Kids Entertainment (
NYSE: KDE), Air Methods (
NASDAQ: AIRM), American States Water (
NYSE: AWR), American Superconductor (
NASDAQ: AMSC), AXA ADS (
NYSE: AXA), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (
NASDAQ: BCRX), Black Hills (
NYSE: BKH), Briggs & Stratton (
NYSE: BGG), Brinker International (
NYSE: EAT), Brooks Automation (
NASDAQ: BRKS), California Pizza Kitchen (
NASDAQ: CPKI), Cardinal Health (
NYSE: CAH), Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling (
NYSE: CCH), Consolidated Water (
NASDAQ: CWCO), Cosi Inc. (
NASDAQ: COSI), Deutsche Telekom (
NYSE: DT), Dionex (
NASDAQ: DNEX), Dot Hill Systems (
NASDAQ: HILL), Dynegy (
NYSE: DYN), First Marblehead (
NYSE: FMD), Goldcorp (
NYSE: GG), Healthsouth (
NYSE: HLS), Hillenbrand Industries (
NYSE: HB), Holly Corp. (
NYSE: HOC), Luminent Mortgage Capital (
NYSE: LUM), Magna Int'l (
NYSE: MGA), NorthStar Realty Finance (
NYSE: NRF), NVDIA (
NASDAQ: NVDA), Quixote (
NASDAQ: QUIX), Ready Mix (
AMEX: RMX), Speedway Motorsports (
NYSE: TRK), Steak 'n Shake (
NYSE: SNS), Superior Industries (
NYSE: SUP), Syntroleum (
NASDAQ: SYNM), TLC Vision (
NASDAQ: TLCV), Universal Display (
NASDAQ: PANL), Vonage (
NYSE: VG), Wild Oats Markets (
NASDAQ: OATS) and a few others.
Friday will likely factor this week, as three economic news bits come to the fore. July import prices are set for report at 8:30. According to Barron's, Lehman Brothers anticipates a 1.0% rise due to higher petroleum prices. Excluding the impact, Lehman sees prices flat. The RBC Cash Index is due at 9:00 a.m. This is important, as the index measures consumer attitudes and spending. It considers the consumers' view on the economy, personal finance, savings and investment confidence. The metric has been on a general declining trend, reaching bottom just last month when it measured 76.1. Finally, the Federal Budget for July is set for report at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Consensus sees a deficit of $35 billion, according to Bloomberg.
Friday's earnings reports include Aircastle LTD (
NYSE: AYR), Allianz SE (
NYSE: AZ), Carrols Restaurant Group (
NASDAQ: TAST), CryptoLogic (
NASDAQ: CRYP), Dominion Homes (
NASDAQ: DHOM), Hugoton Royalty Trust (
NYSE: HGT), Hydrogenics (
NASDAQ: HYGS), Maine & Maritimes (
AMEX: MAM), North Pointe Holdings (
NASDAQ: NPTE), Novavax (
NASDAQ: NVAX), Sunrise Senior Living (
NYSE: SRZ), United Industrial (
NYSE: UIC), York Water (
NASDAQ: YORW) and more. We hope this edition of our weekly market-moving event planner has proved useful to you.
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