If your job is to pick bad investments, you pretty much could have used the financial pages as a dartboard this year and come away looking brilliant. Thatâ??s why itâ??s important for investors to avoid confusing the marketâ??s movement for the stock pickerâ??s genius.
Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first: US will enter a recession: Confirmed by NBER. Check.Unemployment will rise north of 5%. Check (bigtime)Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check.The story in 2008 will be defaults on prime mortgages. Check.Consumer lending practice stupidity exposed. Check.Recreational sector (boats, etc) smashed. Check.Government will[More...]
View SEC Filings View Insider Trading View Annual Reports General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) shares surged higher after activist investor Bill Ackman’s investment was followed by another large purchase by Morgan Stanley. The stock nearly doubled at the end of November when Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a 19.9% ownership stake in the troubled real estate investment trust. The rally was extended this week after Morgan Stanley increased its stake to 5.1%, presumably upon making a[More...]
Today can be called nothing other than nasty as most of the indexes made round trips back to either six-year or eleven-year lows, following a nasty selloff that came on very heavy volume. Volume picked up on every exchange as finally some signs of panic selling hit the market. This selling took the markets off around 5% to 6% and a lot of stocks were just walloped. Now while I have continued to talk about the nasty downtrend this market is in and how well my shorts have been doing: top short holdings and total returns: IPHS 44% POT 65% GGB 72% SBAC 66% CYT 69% MOS 74% CETV 89% CPRT 28% AZO 24% RDK 17% AMX 49% PLCE 38% CAJ 34% SPG 52% CEO 51% AAPL 50% ENB 24% K 18% ARB 67% AMSG 20% SPW 77% RIMM 58% LLL 37% CEDC 65% APD 55% OKE 46% SDA 80% TITN 59% PAA 28%). I don’t believe I have seen the market in such a bleak condition in a long time and think I need to tell you about the lack of bullish items out there. To start it all off only 3% of[More...]
It was a brutal day if you were a falling knife catcher as the market took those impatient bulls who believed the lows were in out and beat them silly with a 6.5% loss on the Nasdaq, a 6.6% loss on the NYSE, and a 6.1% loss on the SP 500. The losses were made even more damaging by the fact that they hit new lows from the recent rally attempt and volume picked up giving the market a very heavy distribution day. This distribution day adds to the pressure the market is facing as each and every day passes. The market in terms of the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are now down over 51% from the October 2007 highs. These losses have been extremely damaging to the psychology of many market players and has done some major damage to individuals portfolios. This sad news is made even more sad knowing that the market does not appear to be near a low–at least as far as the market is currently concerned. This is obvious to me via the volume that is coming[More...]
Stocks did what they have been doing for the entire past thirteen months and that was finishing with a lower close. This weak close was made worse in that it was yet another volatile late day move. This time it was a rollover to the downside with the indexes finishing right near their lows-of-the-day. This very weak close was very nasty to see but some consolation can be taken with the low volume that came with the selling. That lower volume was the second straight day of a lower volume pullback that has come since the reset of the rally attempt on Thursday. On Thursday the market dipped to new lows on a few indexes that reset the previous rally attempt. However, by the close, the market reversed to a very bullish close on much higher volume. That put market players who have been watching this selling for thirteen months now in a better mood. The pullback the past two days have made some pretty upset that the market[More...]
REITcalls: Simon Property Group 2008 Q3 Earnings Call
Date: November 3, 2008
Program Length: 1:12:59
Website: http://www.REITcafe.com
TOPIC: Simon Property Group 2008 Q3 Earnings Call
Company Website: http://www.simon.com
REITtalk Episode 151
Date: October 10, 2008
Guest:
Ralph Block
Publisher
The Essential REIT
Program Length: 46:11
Website: http://www.REITcafe.com
TOPIC:
The global credit crisis has so far resulted in several major bank failures, massive government bailouts, coordinated international rate cuts, and a global stock market decline of unrivaled proportion. With fears of global recession, or perhaps even depression, running rampant, Ralph Block joins host Anatole Pevnev to discuss the impact of recent events and how REITs are positioned in the current environment.
Topics discussed include:
* Are REITs a secure investment despite major credit market problems?
* With market liquidity all but dried up can you still use NAV to establish value for REITs?
* REITs are typically included as a component of the financial stocks; is that reasonable, particularly in today's environment?
* The correlation between REITs and the broader markets is at an all time high; what does this mean for REIT investors?
* How does the current mortgage driven market collapse compare to the mortgage driven recession of the early 70s?
* What are the attributes to focus on if you are considering investing in REITs today?
* How does the REIT preferred market look today?
* Is now a good time to buy REIT shares?
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This Episode of REITtalk is sponsored by:
Pepper Hamilton, LLP
Attorneys at Law
www.pepperlaw.com
Pepper Hamilton is a multi-practice law firm whose reputation for results goes back more than a century. To learn more about Pepper Hamilton and their Real Estate Capital Markets practice you can visit them on the internet at www.pepperlaw.com
Find out how Pepper can keep your next deal sizzling.
Call Michael Friedman at (215) 981-4000
-- and --
RealFoundations
www.RealFoundations.net
Delivering world-class business improvement, process optimization, and technology solutions to real estate investors and operators.
RealFoundations has years of experience working with leading REITS and institutional investors.
For more information on their breadth of services and expertise visit RealFoundations on the internet at www.realfoundations.net
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Music: I'd like to thank Derek K. Miller from Vancouver, Canada for providing the music for this episode of REITtalk. http://podcast.penmachine.com.
REITcalls: Simon Property Group 2008 Q2 Earnings Call
Date: July 28, 2008
Program Length: 1:11:04
Website: http://www.REITcafe.com
TOPIC: Simon Property Group 2008 Q2 Earnings Call
Company Website: http://www.simon.com
REITcalls: Simon Property Group 2008 Q1 Earnings Call
Date: April 29, 2008
Program Length: 1:01:34
Website: http://www.REITcafe.com
TOPIC: Simon Property Group 2008 Q1 Earnings Call
REITcalls: Simon Property Group 2007 Q4 Earnings Call
Date: February 1, 2008
Program Length: 1:19:27
Website: http://www.REITcafe.com
TOPIC: Simon Property Group 2007 Q4 Earnings Call
Simon Property Group Website: www.simon.com