Marvel Raises 2008 Financial Guidance to Reflect
Earlier-than-Expected Iron Man Box Office and DVD Revenue and
Initiates 2009 Financial Guidance
Marvel will host a webcast today for all investors at 9:00 a.m. ET
available at: www.Marvel.com/webcasts or www.earnings.com
So, I'm still trying to figure out a strategy for the coming year for my portfolio. Stocks are starting to feel a little better to me, but I'm very, very cautious about timing in terms of trades. For instance, I'd rather wait until we see a substantial pullback from the recent rally before taking some of my cash on the sidelines and putting it to work. But I've got two ideas in the movie sector that I'm looking at: DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL).
First off, both are great companies. No, not every move they make is perfect (example: Marvel still can't properly monetize its Incredible Hulk property with a decent film). But both stocks have held up relatively well, in my opinion, during the financial implosion. Both stocks are also below their respective 52-week high's and above their respective 52-week low's. That's not a bad position to be in (although I should point out that I generally would like to get these two around their 52-week low's). But which stock has the edge?
Well, Marvel's shares have been strong lately. According to the AOL quote at the time of this writing, Marvel is in the green in all time frames (year-to-date, one-month, one-year, etc.). DreamWorks Animation is in the red in a couple spots, but for the most part, it's been performing somewhat similarly to Marvel. I don't really see that much of a difference in terms of strength. Plus, both are arguably essentially equal in terms of valuation (at least in my opinion).
Recently, Zac Bissonnette took Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and its press-release wizards to task for essentially issuing a document that was full of spin but low on substance. This was in regard to Amazon having its "best Christmas ever." I'm sure you've heard about it. Well, I was looking at an article yesterday that talked about some box-office numbers from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset. I kind of got the same feeling about the numbers as Zac did about the Amazon Christmas thing.
Of course, keep in mind, the article I was looking at was not a press release. Still, the execs at NBC Universal are surely pretty proud about the numbers. After all, they are supposed to be best-ever stats. On the domestic side of things, Universal achieved a total box-office gross of approximately $1.1 billion.
On the international front, the studio brought in $1.7 billion. The year-over-year growth rate was flat for domestic theaters, and for international theaters, the company saw a robust 66% increase. Personally, I'm not impressed. To begin with, domestic was flat, and that's not good. And as for international, well, there was no context in terms of the effects of currency rates.
Plus, does it really matter if a studio is achieving high grosses? There's never any comment about profits and losses on specific titles, compensation structures for the stars, etc. To me, this data doesn't say a lot (admittedly, I'll never be satisfied with the amount of disclosure that studios are required to give on their movie projects).
The article mentions two films as drivers for the year that, in my opinion, underperformed in the domestic marketplace: The Incredible Hulk, based on the Marvel (NYSE: MVL) character, and the latest sequel in the Mummy franchise. The latter barely made it over the $100 million mark, and the former only grossed a little better than $130 million. Big deal. You would have figured that Universal could have squeezed some more box-office bucks out of these properties.
Many on Wall Street believe that GE should rid itself of NBC Universal. I'm not one of them, but I concede that Universal Pictures needs to do better. Seriously, Universal Pictures did okay, but not great, in '08. I sincerely hope that CEO Jeffrey Immelt does not allow the studio to rest on these laurels. That would be a shame, and a slap in the face to shareholders.
Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), a video-game company that competes with Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), hit a 52-week low on Monday. When I saw that the stock hit this level, I immediately began thinking about buying it. But, I must admit, it seems a little scary to be buying in now.
The reason I'm hesitant is that the magic of Grand Theft Auto IV has essentially come and gone. You know how it's fun and inspiring to buy Marvel (NYSE: MVL) ahead of some big movie releases? Trades like that don't always work out, but at least you feel a little more confident about owning the stock.
Then there's the recent earnings report from Take-Two. The publisher disappointed investors, as Zac Bissonnette observed. The numbers weren't great, and you have to wonder how much interest the institutions on Wall Street will have in a company that not only might be susceptible to the slowdown in consumer spending, but which has already used up its major ace.